Uttarakhand: Coming back from behind, Congress is now clearly the favourites to win the state as bellwether Haridwar shows
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
In
the 2012 assembly election, the Congress won 32 of the 70 seats in Uttarakhand,
just one more than the BJP. Since the BJP won five of the 11 seats in the
Haridwar district, with three each going to the Congress and Bahujan Samaj
Party (BSP), this time, chief minister Harish Rawat, who actually hails from
the Kumaon district, has decided to contest the assembly elections from
Haridwar Rural in a bid to turn around the Congress’s fortunes in Garhwal’s
most populous region.
The
plan appears to be working, at least for now. Rawat’s arrival on the scene has
enthused the party cadre in the district. In Piran Kaliyar constituency, where
Muslims form a majority of the population, sitting Congress MLA Furkan Ahmad is
taking on the BSP’s Rao Shajit and independent Mohammad Shahzad, who came
second as a BSP candidate in 2012.
Repeat of 2012
While
the party candidate was away campaigning, the former vice-head of Roorkee
block, Najim Tyagi, could be seen arranging party affairs. Speaking to The Wire,
Tyagi appeared hopeful for a “repeat of 2012” in this constituency. “In
our constituency of about 110,000 voters there are about 60,000 Muslims and
about 18,000 Dalits. Last time we had won by about 1600 votes and this time the
margin would only increase because the CM is also contesting from the district
and people are very happy with his work.”
Tyagi
then talked at length about how the hike in pensions, introduction of health
insurance and the granting of category 3 land rights to farmers, which makes them
eligible to raise loans against their properties and even sell them, were
positive developments that can benefit the Congress. He added, “Besides, Rawat
also promised a job to one person from every family or a Rs 2,500 unemployment
allowance and people get enthused with these when we raise these issues in our
public meetings.”
Tyagi
also said the district’s population was hit hard by demonetisation; most of
Piran Kaliyar’s residents are either farmers or engaged in small trades in
Haridwar. This may likely result in the Hindu trading community shifting
their allegiance from the BJP to the Congress.
Caste, sub-caste factor
to play a role
However,
a little distance away, at independent candidate Shahzad’s office it becomes
clear that the Congress is relying heavily on wishful thinking. Shahzad’s
supporters Bhura and Gulfam Ahmad, who both belong to the Alvi biradari (sub-caste), are of the firm view
that both the BSP and Congress are not even close to being the main contenders
in these elections. “They can say whatever they like, but the fight is with the
BJP,” said Ahmad, who has come all the way from Kolkata to support Shahzad.
Their
reasoning is that the switch from three candidates to four has resulted in the
BJP actually consolidating votes. “The RSS is also working really hard for
them,” chipped in Bhura. The two figure that if Shahzad retains most of
the 11,000 votes from the Teli community – to which he belongs – then the
Congress and BSP will find the going tough, especially because the BJP came in
third last time with just 5,000 votes less than the winner.
Salim
and Waseem, auto-repair workers in Rehmatpur village in the constituency, share
the same views. They insisted that Shahzad’s greatest strength has been that
“he worked for the people even when he was not in power whereas the Congress
MLA Furkan Ahmad was seldom seen in the constituency”. As such, they said, even
members of his Jhoja biradari were angry with Ahmad.
As
for the BJP candidate, Jai Bhagwan Saini, the residents pointed out that he is
battling two negatives. The first is that Saini is not popular – he came fourth
in the district panchayat polls – and the other negative is that he hails from
Sikanderpur and is not a native of the constituency he is fighting from.
Haridwar Rural suffers
from neglect
In
Rawat’s constituency of Haridwar Rural, while Congress flags far outnumber
those of other parties, many residents are discontented with the party’s
preferential treatment of a select few.
In
Ikkatpur village, which has a majority Dalit population, several residents
complained about pension and health benefits not reaching them. Village
resident Charan Singh also said, “When Rawat cam to the village a couple of
months ago and distributed cheques and sewing machines, he ignored the large Dalit
population completely, and only distributed them among the Muslims, who
constitute the second highest segment”. The residents, however, blamed the sarpanch, who also
belongs to the minority community, for this oversight. “Hamaaray liye kuchh nahin hota
(Nothing happens for us),” rued Singh.
Sitting
close-by, Veer Singh, who underwent spinal surgery with help from the pension
scheme, appeared more pleased with the Rawat government’s performance and
pointed to the water line laid in the middle of the concrete village roads and
the new water tank across the main road as developments that have taken place
since Rawat came to power.
Women continue to
suffer
Most
of the women in the village said they have not been receiving any widow,
elderly or disability pension. Elderly Gulshan said she had not been getting
any pension despite her old age and had raised her three daughters and one son
on the meagre income she earned as a farm labourer. Kusum, whose husband
Prithvi Singh lost his legs in an accident, said the family has not been
getting any disability pension. Similarly, Sukhiya, whose daughter-in-law is
paralysed, rued the absence of any social support.
Despite
these problems, the Congress believes that with the BSP’s popularity declining
in the district – it won eight seats in 2002, seven in 2007 and three in 2012 –
it stands a better chance to win the Dalit votes this time.
But
the BSP is not giving up. It is targeting 20 assembly segments in the state
which have large Muslim and Dalit populations. They are primarily located in
Haridwar and the Uddham Singh Nagar district in the plains.
The
party is fielding Mukarram Ansari against Rawat. The BSP is trying to woo
Muslim votes by fielding more Muslim candidates than on any previous occasion.
So this time it has fielded four Muslim candidates in the district, with the
other three being Sarbat Karim Ansari from Manglaur, Mufti Riyasat from Khanpur
and Rao Sajid form Piran Kaliyar.
The
BJP is backing Yatishwaranand from Haridwar Rural.
Just
as the Congress is relying on party vice president Rahul Gandhi and UP
chief minister Akhilesh Yadav to boost its candidates, the BSP is awaiting
party supremo Mayawati’s arrival, while the BJP cadre is waiting for Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah to give a final fillip to
their prospects in this tight contest.
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