UP 3rd Phase Polling: Seals the State for SP-Congress Combine

Saturday, February 18, 2017

The 69 Assembly constituencies in 12 districts of Uttar Pradesh will vote in the third phase tomorrow. The 12 districts in the third phase include Farukhabad, Hardoi, Kannauj, Mainpuri, Etawah, Kanpur, Dehat, Auraiya, Lucknow, Unnao, Sitapur and Barabanki. 

In the Assembly elections of 2012, Samajwadi Party was successful in sweeping 55 of the 69 seats whereas Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 6, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 5 and Congress won 2 seats in the election. This means as a combine the Alliance won 57 out of the 69 seats. That is not all. An analysis of 2012 vote share indicates that should the SP and Congress had contested as an alliance then instead of separately, they would have swept all 69 seats. The complete expected dominance of the SP-Congress Alliance of the 3rd Phase is because the contest is entering the Yadav heartland only now.

The calculations of the Alliance is that in the 1st Phase (which was their weakest) is to corner at least 30 seats, the second phase 50 seats and the third phase 65 seats.  So by end of the 3rd Stage, tomorrow evening, the alliance expects to be at least in the range of 135-145 seats.  To get a simple majority a political party or formation needs at least 203 seats. So this makes the alliance still short of a simple majority, but nevertheless the commanding lead that the Alliance should chalk up by tomorrow evening is so wide that there is hardly any probability of its rivals either BSP or BJP playing catch up in the remaining 4 phases. 

So we have some of our best old school journalists Biswajeet Singh, Bhupendra Chaubey and Rohini Singh calling in unison  the SP-Congress Alliance the victors on the eve of Phase 3 polling.

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