Punjab: Voter Turnout Data Repudiates the Claim of an AAP Wave

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

We are repeatedly told that higher voter turnout in both Punjab as a state and Malwa as a region would be a clear indication of an AAP Wave, however invisible. Now that the all the numbers are in, we find, at the overall state level and all the three regions of Punjab, including Malwa, voter turnout declined viz-a-viz 2012. Only 6 out of 22 districts (marked in yellow or green) voter turnout was found relatively higher this year than 2012, but only three (marked green)  – Pathakot, Fategarh Sahib & Mansa where the increase was somewhat statistically significant. 

Dr Prannoy Roy’s one sample Focus Group Discussion (FGD) on the basis of which he projected a 57.5% probability for AAP win was in an assembly constituency known as Bassi Pathana, part of Fategarh Sahib Lok Sabha constituency. The hard data conclusively establishes that extrapolating Bassi Pathana as a state wise trend as Dr Roy attempted flagrantly violates all established principles of research methodology. 

The analysis also explains why Congress war room distributed ladoos and wild celebrations broke out while AAP went into a sulk after voting completion.

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