Goa Assembly Polls 2007: Fuzzy Pre-Polls. Congress the Dark Horse
Wednesday, February 01, 2017
From the clutch of opinion polls published, what is obvious to the eye is collectively a lack of statistical consistency.
Most polls however give the edge to BJP, with the Congress as their main challenger. The most inconsistent projection is that of AAP. The majority polls dismiss AAP as only a marginal player, but one or two put them actually leading!! In either case, AAP is BJP’s insurance to ensure non-BJP votes are split, which gives BJP an edge. That AAP itself do not believe they can win or come second is underscored by the fact that most of their top national leadership is camping in Punjab rather than Goa. Compared to Delhi, the AAP campaign impact had been pedestal to propel them as a major player in the state.
Most of the pre-polls were
undertaken before the Congress got its act together and started its campaign.
Rahul Gandhi’s rallies were the biggest that neither Kejriwal nor Modi could
match. The vote base of the Congress and AAP overlap in terms of minority votes. While
much has been written in the media of AAP grabbing the Christian base of the
Congress, the feedback from the ground suggests that AAP is actually grabbing
more the section of Christians who voted the BJP in 2012 rather than making any significant inroads into the Congress minority base. In that sense it is doing a favour for the Congress by eroding the BJP vote share. While Congress has a much
wider social base, AAP’s Hindu base is practically non-existent. Without it,
AAP cannot be expected to logically to either win or pip the Congress to the
second spot. The Congress and not AAP can be expected to be the dark horse in
the race where the BJP appears to have slight edge. Accordingly, because
of this there is a good possibility of those anti-BJP voters who might vote
Congress only because AAP is seen as a voter splitter.
Goa Congress is not in
great shape, yet it seems to be gaining, owing to perceived anti-incumbency of the
Parsekar government. Despite the perception of comatose,
pollsters are of the opinion that the Grand Old Party will see a rise it its seat tally. The question is how much
can it gain? That would depend on to what extent both BJP and AAP vote share decline. The lower their vote share as projected by polls, the higher the Congress strike rate and vice versa.
That these published polls are not reliable is hinted by veteran and respected pollster, Shanta Kumar in a recent article which we are reproducing below.
BJP may struggle to regain power in Goa
By Shanta Kumar, CSDS
It is battle of nerves for the BJP and the Congress in Goa, a small state with just 40 assembly seats. Going for the poll on February 4, what is unnerving strategists of these two national level parties is the presence of a rookie, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has potential enough to turn the apple-cart of any established player. Shorn off any electoral base or ideology, the AAP is focusing its energy in cornering youth who appear to be disillusioned with both the ruling BJP and the Congress.
This has turned traditional bastion of the BJP and
the Congress into three-cornered contest. Records show that whenever there is a
three-cornered contest, the AAP has outshined others. But Goa is not Delhi, nor
is the state’s ruling dispensation facing controversies as seen with the Sheila
Dikshit government in Delhi, resulting in voters turning towards Arvind
Kejriwal-headed AAP for redemption.
However, what may prove costly to the BJP and its
government in the forthcoming election is the on-going fight between the party
and its parent body, the Rashtiya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The reason behind their
squabbling is Goa’s BJP-led government’s refusal to follow the RSS’s dictates
on an issue related to medium of instruction in primary schools. The Sangh
wanted implementation of Konkani and Marathi as mediums of instruction.
Instead, the BJP government under Manohar Parrikar earlier and Laximikant
Parsekar later continued with English as a medium of instruction in primary
schools in order to keep local Christians in good humour.
Upset with this, the RSS has announced that it would
not support the BJP in Goa. In this circumstance the onus has shifted to the
BJP’s central and state leadership to steady the party’s ship in the turbulent
political waters of the state. On the other hand, the Congress is in no mood to
compromise its chance this time. The overall concern in the state, however, is
political instability. Between 1990 and 2002, 13 governments have ruled the
state. With the arrival of national parties like the Congress and the BJP in
Goa, though, chances of instability have declined, yet they have not completely
vanished from the political character of the state.
Which party will win election?
Twenty one seats are required to form a government
in Goa. Although the BJP, the Congress and the APP have put their energy,
resources and men to corner as many seats as they could, it is the MGP which is
ready to spoil the electoral broth. The regional outfit, known for its
conservative Hindutva outlook has decided to contest on 26 seats, leaving the
rest for alliance partners like the GSM and the Shiv Sena.
Sharad Pawar-headed Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
and regional outfits like the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), the United
Goans Democratic Party (UGDP), the Goa Vikas Party (GVP), Goa Forward Party
(GFP) and the Goa Su-raj Party (GSP) are also in the fray. The Congress which
had initially announced contesting polls on seat-sharing basis with the GFP,
has now decided to contest election on 37 seats. It would support Independent
candidates on the rest three assembly seats.
The party has also decided against projecting anyone
as chief ministerial face. It is banking on senior party leader and former Goa
Chief Minister Digambar Kamat to bounce back to power, the possibility of which
appears a bit remote in the background of weak organisational strength of the
party in the state. If the BJP loses election in Goa, it would be greatest
setback for the saffron party, because the state is considered as a formidable
bastion of the party after Gujarat.
Despite being handicapped by the nonsupport from the
RSS and facing stiff challenge from the Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM) which is a
hardcore Hindutva outfit, the saffron party is hopeful of re-scripting victory
again. Possible division of votes of Christians, constituting more than 25 per cent
of the state’s total population, between the Congress and the AAP, is the
reason behind the BJP’s optimism. But then it is the AAP which is equally
looking formidable in the state. Distribution of ticket to candidates much
before the election was declared, has given candidates of the AAP an
opportunity to familiarise themselves with the voters. Besides, unlike the BJP
and the Congress, the AAP has not desisted from projecting the party’s chief
ministerial face in the election. Elvis Gomes, a former bureaucrat, has been
declared as AAP’s chief ministerial face.
Electoral strategy of each party
The AAP is focusing on youth, farmers, women and
middle class to achieve high electoral gains. The party’s manifesto talks about
ridding the state of casinos, gambling, drugs and prostitution rackets. It
promises about making Goa a corruption-free, putting corrupt miners behind bars
and recovering Rs 36,000 crore that the state has lost on account of illegal
mining. The party has also promised bringing in land reforms in the state.
Adopting its time-tested door-to-door campaigning method and street dramas to
reach out to the voters, the party has promised to do away with protection
given to the coconut palm in the name of it being as a forest tree.
The BJP, like elsewhere, has adopted a ‘top-down’ strategy in Goa in which top central leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah address big rallies and then local leaders go door-to-door to meet the voters. By organizing “Vijay Sankalp” rallies, the party has already built momentum across the state. In the 2012 assembly polls, the party had won 21 seats on its own in Goa. In North Goa, it remained victorious in 13 seats. Also, its performance in Christian-dominated South Goa was up to its expectations, winning as many as 8 seats from this part of Goa. This time, given the Goan Churches’ unhappiness with the BJP, despite the state government’s decision to stick to English as a medium of instruction in primary schools, it does not seem that the BJP may be able to perform well in South Goa.
The BJP, like elsewhere, has adopted a ‘top-down’ strategy in Goa in which top central leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah address big rallies and then local leaders go door-to-door to meet the voters. By organizing “Vijay Sankalp” rallies, the party has already built momentum across the state. In the 2012 assembly polls, the party had won 21 seats on its own in Goa. In North Goa, it remained victorious in 13 seats. Also, its performance in Christian-dominated South Goa was up to its expectations, winning as many as 8 seats from this part of Goa. This time, given the Goan Churches’ unhappiness with the BJP, despite the state government’s decision to stick to English as a medium of instruction in primary schools, it does not seem that the BJP may be able to perform well in South Goa.
Development and good governance are two key planks
of the party which is banking on Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s image and
reputation to pull out a victory, even though it has not declared anyone as its
chief ministerial face in the election.
However, it is the Congress which is trying to cash
in on public resentment, especially on employment, legalising of illegal mines
and others. Whether the party’s populist schemes like free-electricity to slum
dwellers may be able to cut much ice are in the realm of speculation.
Development and stability are among the main poll planks of the party.
Key electoral issues
Migration of people from Maharashtra, Karnataka,
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and its impact on Goa’s culture is one of issues
concerning people in the state. Drug trade and its linkage with the state’s
casino business is another major worry of the people; as such they have
demanded closer of casinos. Problem of dual nationality faced by Goans is also
a key issue.
Conclusion
Even as demonetisation and its consequent impact on
cash flow along with the Election Commission’s strict vigil have hit Goan
politicians hard as they are not able to reach out to voters as easily as they
want, the forthcoming polls are acid test for the ruling BJP. While it has to
prove that it can survive the election without the RSS’s support, it has also
to ensure that Modi’s magic has not waned.
However,
the saffron party can pat its back for the moment as majority of opinion poll
surveys show the BJP gaining in the election. Poll survey of India Today-Axis
shows the BJP getting 20-24 seats, the Congress 13-15 and the AAP 2-4 seats.
Another survey conducted by VDP Associates shows the BJP winning 22 seats, the
AAP 9 seats and the Congress 6 seats. But poll surveys or exit polls have in
most cases proved wrong in their calculations.
The 2016 presidential election in
America is a case in point. None of the poll surveys conducted by newspaper
houses or TV channels ever projected Donald Trump as America’s 45th President,
but when the results were out, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was not the
one whom surveys had declared Barack Obama’s successor.
1 comments
You should show the date of the different surveys as well.Elections are not static,their dynamics change with time.A 6 month old survey isn't nearly as relevant as a recent one
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