A Wave in UP. A Negative Wave and it is lashing out against the BJP
Sunday, February 12, 2017
It is popularly
believed that the 1st Phase sets the ‘hawa’ that conditions voting
in rest of the phases in Uttar Pradesh. So what exactly does mainstream and
social media think what’s happening in the state?
The Navbharat Times
provided some very useful insights on voting trends. They felt Dalits enmasse voted Mayawati of
the BSP, the Jats overwhelming backed the RLD, the minorities consolidated
mainly around the SP-Congress alliance, the leftover OBCs (minus Jats) around
the BJP with Brahmins divided between the BJP and Congress. And Western UP was supposed
to be BJP’s strongest batting line up and as we proceed to the subsequent
phases, the BJP can be expected to progressively get even weaker as the might
of Yadav-Muslim social coalition comes into full play.
An analysis of BJP
performance in Assembly Polls post May 2014 reveal that the party had been losing
vote share at a rather disconcerting trend, even when winning states like
Haryana, Maharashtra & Assam. Read HERE.
If these perceptions
of Navbharat Times are indeed accurate, the moot question is what kind of hit would
BJP’s vote share take, given they chalked up 51% during 2014 Lok Sabha
elections?? There is a good possibility that it be around 30%, plunging their vote share in the state to sub
20% levels. At sub 20% levels, BJP could end up the 4th largest
single party and if so, on March 11th it would be fun to watch
pollsters try to defend BJP’s number one billing according to their pre-polls!
Corroborative evidence of complete collapse of BJP in UP is reflected in the
lack of crowds for BJP rallies. As UP voted Phase 1, Amit Shah and Maneka
Gandhi found to their disdain and acute embarrassment scanty crowds in BJP’s so
called bastion Philbit. Modi’s speeches does not excite his own party colleagues
any more as they did in the past, neither is BJP’s cadre and supporters electrified by
the rhetoric spewed by their leaders. The BJP appear to be suffering from a
huge disconnect with the people and lack of entrophy.
A review of
perceptions of journalists and election watchers suggest that the 1st
Phase was mainly a contest between the SP-Congress Alliance and BSP with RLD
coming in with a good spunky third and the BJP a distant fourth. The overwhelming
opinion was that it was a neck-to-neck battle between the Alliance and BSP,
with some putting BSP marginally ahead in the seat count while others the
Alliance. It is possible that the BSP leads the Alliance as Phase 1 was the
weakest for the Alliance. Mayawati appeared quite elated when she claimed a wave in her favour. The Alliance appeared pretty pleased also as if the 1 st Phase voting ensured a decent second
place for them, they should happily settled with that.
Below is a snapshot
of show of some interesting social media conversations about interpreting voter
turnout during Phase 1.
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