UP at Half Way Mark: Comparative Analysis of Prashant Jha, Rajdeep Sardesai, Shivam Vij, and Bhupendra Chaubey’s Assesments
Monday, February 20, 2017
All parties or
political formations – SP-Cong Alliance, BSP & BJP – predictably have claimed they
would be getting over 60 seats in Phase 3. After the Jagran ‘Exit Poll’ controversy,
the circulation of fake ‘exit polls’ have now apparently completely ceased.
That said, what do some of
the leading political journalists say? Notwithstanding their headlines of their
articles and tweets, what does reading between their lines reveal? Is there are
consensus among them. So we selected 4 such journalists – Prashant Jha, Editor
of HindustanTimes, Rajdeep Sardesai, IndiaToday, Shivam Vij, HuffPo and
Bhupendra Chaubey, CNN18News and analyzed their articles in an effort to
decipher trends. For the purpose of analysis we have extracted relevant
portions of their articles and categorised them verbatim into 4 standard heads
– what they opined about the Alliance, BJP, BSP & Overall Outlook before
offering our own comments.
PRASHANT
JHA
"Signs of change? How Muslims are veering towards BSP in
an SP bastion". Read article HERE
& "UP elections: Why a hung assembly can’t be ruled out in this battleground
state". Read article HERE
ALLIANCE
There is no
anti-incumbency mood. Yes, Akhilesh has made this election about himself and is
showcasing vikas (development works done by his government). And, it is true
that he is well-liked. But, every region has its own interpretation of the
message. In central UP, especially in the Yadav belt, and among Muslims, there
is an overwhelming support for the young chief minister. But this narrative has
not caught up, at least not yet, across castes and geographies.
BJP
It was a mix of
Hindutva and Vikas that saw the BJP sweep Uttar Pradesh in 2014 – winning 71 of
the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats. The “Modi wave” swept away caste and identity
calculations, as Jats, Yadavs, non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits voted the BJP along
with upper castes, the party’s traditional vote bank. But, things are different
this time. Local, narrow politics is back. The BJP has Modi to ride on and the
PM’s popularity has not diminished but it neither has a popular local face nor
an agenda. It is no longer seen as a party of vikas as it was in 2014. It is
because of these reasons that it has to rely on religious polarisation,
particularly in west UP. The morale of the cadre is low and by all accounts,
ticket distribution has been faulty. The party continues to be the first choice
of Brahmins and a substantial number of non-Yadav OBCs -- and these are
important constituencies. But, here, too, there are variations. In west UP, the
Jats appear to have voted against the BJP in large numbers, Thakurs have not
consolidated completely and turnout may be lower among Banias.
BSP
The return of Jatavs
to the BSP is now apparent across the state. In terms of social groups too,
Mayawati, is the first choice of only her core base, the Jatavs, while other
groups such as Muslims or upper castes may vote for her tactically, depending
on candidates. It is representative of the shift of Muslims to the BSP in seats
where local arithmetic does not favour the SP.
OUTLOOK
UP 2017 is not one
election, but as a journalist put it, 403 elections, for all seats have their
own dynamics. A single big poll issue, a personality-centred contest and wide
caste coalitions lead to decisive outcomes. As a sense builds up that a
particular party is winning, floating voters join in because they want
stability and also because of peculiar Indian voter behaviour -- the vote must
go to the winner otherwise it is “wasted”.
It suggests that
politics is being driven by local considerations, the dynamic is changing in
every constituency and there is no state-wide hawa, or wave. It also says
social fragmentation is visible -- and each group has found a political outlet.
And that is why it is possible that the result will be a mixed bag with no
clear winner.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Modi Wave of 2014 that cut across caste &
class has now dissipated. Though BJP continues their hold over upper castes and
besides still the first choice among non-Yadavs, they have lost out Jats, and appear
weakened their grip over its core constituencies – Thakurs & Banias. BJP is
not any more seen as a Vikas party. Ticket distribution appears faulty and the morale
of party cadre is very low. If morale of cadre is low, it suggests that they most likely do
not see themselves as front runners to winning the state.
2. The good news for the Alliance is that there
is no anti-incumbency. So if SP & Congress together registered around 30%
in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, absence of anti-incumbency means there is little
likelihood of slippage from 30% for the Alliance. Akhilesh Yadav is well liked,
particularly Yadavs and Muslims – meaning his unfavourability ratings is nil or
low. However the degree of his popularity may not be uniform across castes
& geographies.
3. Jha is of the opinion it is most likely a
hung house as a decisive verdict is highly unlikely on account of lack of a
single big poll issue, a personality-centred contest and wide based caste
coalitions. There is no discernable state wise ‘hawa’ or wave that is brought about when
floating voters back a party or formation most likely to win. This argument
sounds logical but nevertheless contradicts UP’s past poll behaviour. In 2007,
none in the media or pollster gave Mayawati a ghost of a chance in winning the
state. They all projected her a distant third. But she did win and how. In 2012, though a few polls gave SP a chance to be the largest single party, all suggested a hung house. SP won with a comfortable majority. What
is more important is the perception however vague who has the edge in relative terms and then
floating voters tend to coalesce around this relative perception. That is how waves are
made.
RAJDEEP SARDESAI
UP: Ten Takeaways.
Read article HERE
ALLIANCE
Akhilesh Yadav is
emerging as a pan-UP leader in his own right. There is little anger against him
but his MLAs do face anti incumbency. Akhilesh is particularly popular among
youth who see him as a face of the future. Law and order is a major concern in
urban areas but Akhilesh is rated strongly as a development oriented leader. The
Congress SP combination has unified the Muslim vote considerably and there is
little division in the Muslim vote between the SP and the BSP that the BJP is
hoping for. The alliance today is essentially a MY (Muslim Yadav) consolidation
of votes but it is struggling to get incremental votes. The bust up in the SP
has had limited impact on the Yadavs who are sticking by the cycle and
Akhilesh. Shivpal Yadav's attempt to divide the Yadav vote has not worked. The
Congress in particular is unable to easily transfer its traditional upper caste
votes to the SP candidates in the alliance. The congress is a 'kamzor kadi' in
the alliance with the SP. Akhilesh may have given the Congress 40-50 seats too
many, a move that may cost him in a close run race like it did the DMK in Tamil
Nadu last year
BJP
The BJP's core vote
among upper castes and traders in urban pockets is intact despite
demonetisation which is not a decisive issue on the ground. It's incremental
'plus' vote is coming from the extremely backward castes (Maurya, Nishad etc)
who are numerically strong. It's the non-Yadav OBC who is emerging as the BJP's
key vote bank. The BJP's core vote among upper castes and traders in urban
pockets is intact despite demonetisation which is not a decisive issue on the
ground.
BSP
Mayawati is
struggling to make an impact. Her Jatav vote is intact, but she is unable to
attract the 'plus' vote that was crucial to her success in the past, especially
in 2007. Even the Muslim vote has gone to her only in limited areas where the
BSP candidate was very strong.
OUTLOOK
After three rounds,
the BJP and the SP-Congress alliance seats could be roughly in the same range.
The key now lies in eastern UP where the BJP will look to achieve further
consolidation of its Hindu, non Yadav OBC/EBC, upper caste alliance to pull
firmly ahead. If the Congress improves its strike rate, especially in urban
areas, then the alliance is in the battle. A hung assembly can't be ruled out
if present trends continue, but if Mayawati continues to decline, then we
should have a clear winner at the end of the race. For now, it remains
advantage BJP, but the Akhilesh-Rahul alliance is still in the hunt.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Akhilesh is a
pan-state leader with little anti-incumbency against him. Youth are rooting for
him. Akhilesh symbolises Vikas whereas Jha was of the opinion that BJP lost its
Vikas tag. Muslim consolidation around the alliance is high and the Yadav
Parivar feud hardly hurt the Alliance. However Rajdeep Sardesai is of the
opinion the Alliance is largely constrained by their narrow social coalitio basen, unable to
significantly expand out of their ‘MY’ combination. Here we detect a basic
inconsistency. In 2012, the SP was largely a ‘MY’ social combination and yet
secured a facile victory. 2017 only sees them revert back to the same combination. Secondly, youth who Sardesai claims support Akhilesh,
cuts across caste and class barriers. Besides, Sardesai overlooks SP have tremendous
support among women, which again cuts across caste and class barriers. If youth
and women back the Alliance, you automatically should get a wider coalition
than ‘MY’ as opposed to the one narrowly perceived by Sardesai. The Congress is further blamed for not able
to transfer upper castes votes to the alliance but not credited for
consolidating the Muslim votes, otherwise scattered, around the Alliance. Sardesai feels the Congress
was given twice the number of seats than they really deserved and cites the
last Tamilnadu Assembly poll example. But there is also the Bihar example where
it was repeatedly highlighted that not only the seats given to Lalu Prasad
& RLD but the seats given to the Congress ended up the Archilles Heel of the Nitesh
led Alliance. Yashwant Desmukh of CVoter went to the extent of describing all
the seats given to Congress and to a more limited extent, RJD a virtual gift by Nitesh
to the BJP. Most of the exit polls also indicated that this could be the case
but the results busted such misreading with both RJD and Congress registering a
higher strike rate than Nitesh Kumar!
2. Sardesai’s
opinion of BJP’s core votes and incremental plus votes are not shared by the
other journalists covered in this post. They in contrast have the exact
opposite view – that BJP’s vote share viz-a-viz 2014 is more or less depleted.
3. In contrast to Bhupendra
Chaubey, Sardesai is of the opinion that BSP is a declining force and the more
it declines, the better prospect it is for the Alliance to win. While BSP maintains a stranglehold over Jatavs, their hold over
non-Jatavs appears to have loosened its grip. Like Jha, Sardesai is of the
opinion that Muslims vote BSP only wherever the Alliance candidate is weak –
following the exception principle than as a split choice.
4. Sardesai is of the only one among the four journalists
covered in this post that categorically portrayed the race as neck-to-neck contest
between BJP and the Alliance. This despite his own media group putting Akhilesh
Yadav as the cover story of IndiaToday magazine and tacitly proclaiming the Alliance as the winner of the contest. Like Prashant Jha, Rajdeep Sardesai does
not rule out a hung assembly.
SHIVAM VIJ
18 Things We Can Say
For Sure In An Uncertain UP Election. Read article HERE
ALLIANCE
There is no Akhilesh
wave. Travelling in December last week and January first week, one heard voters
say 'Akhilesh, Akhilesh' everywhere, and these weren't just Yadav or Muslim
voters. Upper caste and non-Yadav OBC Hindus were also widely heard praising
Akhilesh Yadav. Many were saying 'Modi for centre and Akhilesh for state.'
Suddenly, one hears only Yadavs and Muslims respond to Akhilesh Yadav's
branding and development work. When you ask voters about Akhilesh, most praise
him or at least say he is ok. You have to ask people about Akhilesh and only
then do they say positive things about him. By themselves, they do not bring
him up (except Muslims). He lost the momentum. Muslims who seem to be the most
fond of him. Everywhere, Muslim voters are speaking of Akhilesh the way Modi
fans speak of Modi. Muslim voters insist they are Akhilesh fans only because he
delivers development without discrimination to all sections of society. Until
the SP-Congress alliance was announced, there was a lot of talk about whether
Muslims would see the SP or the BSP as their first choice. The alliance ended
that discussion. Only in seats where the SP candidate is not seen as winnable
are the Muslims going with the BSP. Muslims are the only voters widely using
the word Gatbandhan, or alliance. This has effectively brought about a
Yadav-Muslim consolidation, much like 2012. At the same time it has reduced the
attraction of non-Yadav Hindus, both upper castes and OBCs, towards Akhilesh
Yadav as a CM who has tried to rise over caste and community.
BJP
There is no Modi
wave. Modi is doing only 12 odd rallies in a Brazil-size state, in contrast to
30 plus rallies he did throughout the Bihar election. The BJP's campaign is
about the BJP, not about Modi or a CM candidate face. The BJP's posters never
have Modi alone, not even Modi and Amit Shah alone. They have a few state
leaders of various castes and regions. The 2014 Modi wave saw even some Yadavs
and Dalits vote for Modi. That's not happening this election. OBCs are heavily
inclined towards the BJP this time. Its difficult estimate the extent, but the
trading community--mostly but not only Baniyas--are reluctant to go and vote.
One has heard from a few traders the figure of 20% who may sit at home. But
there is also those voting SP or BSP to make the BJP lose, so as to send a
message to the BJP. Losing some of its core voters is bad news for the BJP,
which is unable to either trumpet or defend demonetisation in its campaign. Non-Yadav
OBCs love Modi, while non-Yadav OBCs are mostly with the BJP, the consolidation
is not like 2014. Jats have deserted the BJP. Jat disenchantment with Modi is
also the reason why communal polarisation was weaker than caste politics in
phase one. BJP's gains from communal polarisation are limited. High Muslim
population in the first, second and sixth phases often turn the battle into an
"H-M" one. the three phases with high Muslim population are unlikely
to see a BJP sweep like 2014. They are more likely to be a mixed bag.
BSP
There is no Mayawati
wave as her Dalit-Muslim alliance failed to take off. Unlike the past, they are
not coming together against Yadav dominance in a big way as non-Yadav
Mayawati's pitch for a Dalit-Muslim alliance has failed as Muslims are inclined
towards the SP-Congress alliance. BSP remains the weakest player, yet a dark
horse but with a solid Dalit vote bank, the BSP remains a force to reckon with
even at its worst. A small section of upper castes, especially Brahmins and Baniyas,
who are unhappy with the BJP for whatever reason (demonetisation, tickets) are
seeing the BSP as an option. Since this is happening silently, it is difficult
to estimate the extent of this shift.
OUTLOOK
This UP election has
become 403 elections, the constituency dynamic overriding all attempts of
parties to create a state-wide narrative that could turn into a wave. This
election is up in the air. Just because there is no wave yet doesn't mean there
may be no perceptible wave in the next few days. After every phase there is
potential for the election to turn.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Shivam Vij
confirms the Muslim consolidation around the alliance was made possible only
because of the tie up between SP & Congress. Here lies the value Congress brought to the alliance. Akhilesh remains popular
cutting across caste & class but appear to have lost the momentum. Unlike
in November & December, only Muslims seem to spontaneously articulate in their praise of him
but others also do so but need to be nudged to open out. So it doesn’t necessarily mean that Akhilesh
has lost support among non-Muslims though Shivam points out some extent of
support could have been lost due to communal polarisation.
2. Sharing Jha’s opinion, Shivam points out the
loss of BJP’s support among Jats, Yadavs, Dalits and more importantly among the
core base of the party – banias – who he feel might not turn up to vote or if
they do so, may vote against the party. The scope of communal polarisation is low
and remain confined to phases 1,2 & 6 where Muslim population is high.
3. There is no wave
towards Mayawati as she failed to put together a ‘DM’ coalition. But Dalit
consolidation around BSP is extremely high and some upper castes and banias from BJP are
also tempted to vote BSP as an option. Shivam however considers BSP the dark
horse. This is an astounding perception.
In 2014, the BSP registered a tad less than 20%. To come neareven a near majority,
you need a double digit swing to reach at least 29-30% vote share threshold. Shivam’s
analysis does not explain how this can take place when he categorically rule
out a wave in favour of Mayawati.
4. Unlike Bihar where Shivam was able to call
the elections, he makes a tacit admission of not being able to decipher the mood of
the voters of UP. Like Jha, Shivam feels that the result is the aggregation of
406 constituencies, each with they own unique voting behaviour and thus difficult to
fathom collectively. But he does not rule out a wave arguing that just because
the mood is not readily discernible, it does not mean a wave is not in the offing.
BHUPENDRA CHAUBEY, CNNIBNNEWS IN PERISCOPE
The much hyped
periscope analysis of Chaubey proved rather disappointing. Chaubey made 3 major
points
1. Muslim vote is
split and that weakens SP and strengthens BSP
2. BSP is the party to watch, the dark horse
3. Sharing Rajdeep Sardesai’s view he feels that
the Congress had been given more seats than the weight it can pull
CONCLUSION
1. Chaubey remains the only journalist who feels
the Muslim vote is split between SP and BSP
2. Like Shivam, Chaubey considers BSP the dark
horse without detailing how a party with slightly less than 20% in 2014, can be
expected to catapult into a surprise winner. To win you need to be in the minimum threshold range of
29-30% vote share involving a 10% swing that is whopping by any consideration. It needs a
wave though Shivam categorically ruled out such a wave in favour of BSP while Chaubey is
silent on it.
3. Like Sardesai, Chaubey feels that the
Congress is dragging down the alliance by a poor strike rate though similar
opinion were aired during Bihar polls which Congress busted.
Why the Alliance is coasting to a historic sweep
Taking stock of all
these journalistic inputs, what can we make of the state of the race at this
juncture? But before we do that, we need to keep the following 2014 Lok Sabha
Vote Shares in mind
BJP
43.5% Alliance 30.0% BSP 20.0% Others 6.5%
The Alliance stands
at start-up at 30% and BSP at 20%, and all the journalists analyses seem to point
that both will stand to net gain from here. However, to catch up with the Alliance,
the BSP needs a whopping 10% swing towards it, which is farfetched when all
journalists, except perhaps Chaubey agree there is no such wave or at the most
a very feeble wave in favour of the BSP.
The BJP’s vote share
in 2012 was 15% while in 2014 it was 43.5%. So the Modi Wave could be
quantified viz 28.5%. So if all the
journalists agree that the Modi Wave has well and truly dissipated viz we are back
more less to the 2012 scenario, does it mean that the whole of this 28.5% has now
been dissipated? That looks highly unlikely to happen. But what intensity is
this dissipation taking place? It looks pretty bad from the cues Modi is personally emitting
– he appeared to have lost his composure as seen from both his body language
and speeches and the fact that the BJP gave up their Vikas avatar and going
back to their communal agenda. Even if it is assumed that the BJP is able to
retain only 40% of the 28.5% Modi Wave this would mean only around 11-12% being
retained from 2014. Adding this to their 2012 vote share, we can assume that
their current vote share could be around 26-27%.
The question is
where this 17-18% eroded from BJP’s vote share is going to? Alliance? BSP? Others?
The analyses of all the 4 journalists indicate both the Alliance & BSP is
poised to make net gains. Even if the Alliance snatches 5-6% from the BJP, their vote share
springs up to 35-36%. This should give a double digit lead to the Alliance over
BJP, adequate to trigger a Tsunami Wave. Similarly if another 5-6% is snatched
up by BSP, they would still trail the Alliance by a double digit margin and
additionally possess the probability of relegating the BJP into a humiliating third
place.
So the battle based
on these assumptions is basically between the Alliance and BJP, with the BSP
only having a long shot of displacing BJP as the runner-up. To that extent
Rajdeep Sardesai appears to have made the right call. Chaubey’s analysis of BSP
as possible front runner looks totally fictional. Jha’s prediction of a
possible hung house can take place only if BJP limit loses to 6-7% to their
vote share of 2014 which looks highly improbable while Shivam may strike
bullseye again as he did with his Bihar predictions if a sweep materializes as
an outcome of these elections.
At the end of third
phase, BJP strategies on one hand is trying to attract non-Jatav votes from the
BSP to shore up their vote share by resorting to communalization of the
election campaign and on the other hand attempting to prop up BSP in an effort to
confuse the Muslims to split their votes between the Alliance and BSP, eroding
the vote share of the Alliance in the process. Will they succeed? Highly unlikely with three
phases and 50% of seats already voted. The die has already been cast in stone.
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