The Jai-Veeru Jodi of UP Polls
Friday, February 17, 2017
In this year’s elections, all three parties
are beset by difficulties. The BJP not only does not have a local face to draw
in voters, its leadership’s choice of candidates has sparked off mini-mutinies
in many districts. The Jats, who played a critical role in the BJP’s UP sweep
in 2014, have revolted. And if the intensity of Hindu-Muslim polarisation has
lessened, it is still unclear how anger against demonetisation, especially
among farmers and traders, will play out electorally. Additionally, the RSS and
its affiliates, who played a stellar behind-the-scenes role in 2014, are
disenchanted, particularly because many of their protégés have not been given
tickets.
Panicking, the BJP has now returned to its
core Hindutva agenda, trying to whip up emotions with its promise of anti-Romeo
squads (‘love jihad’ in a new bottle), shutting slaughterhouses, and putting
the Ram Temple issue, the Uniform Civil Code and triple talaq back on its
agenda. Dogwhistle politics is back, as Yogi Adityanath has been given a free
run of western UP, an area he was earlier kept away from by a party leadership
wary of his influence growing beyond Purvanchal.
The BSP, missing in action for close to five
years, has been sought to be revived belatedly by Mayawati. The shock of the
2014 general election results, which denied her even one Lok Sabha seat and
dragged her vote share below 20 per cent, had galvanised her into action. But a
resurgent BJP poached on the BSP: 2015 and 2016 saw an exodus of top party
leaders — including Swami Prasad Maurya, Jugal Kishore, Dara Singh Chauhan,
Brajesh Pathak, Babu Singh Kushwaha, and RK Choudhury — largely to the BJP.
They all represent important backward castes (except Pathak, a Brahmin) and
their departure sent a negative message to their respective followers. The upper
castes, particularly the Brahmins, who played a critical role in bringing
Mayawati to power in 2007, were no longer with her, despite the reassuring
presence of Rajya Sabha MP Satish Mishra next to her. She then embarked on
forging Dalit-Muslim unity, but the minority community has not thus far
responded too positively to her overtures. For the Muslims today, the presence
of a Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre has alerted them to the dangers
of dividing their votes. They are voting for the BSP only in constituencies
that the SP-Congress candidates appear unable to win.
At a recent rally in Moradabad, Mayawati
drew an impressive crowd, but it was mostly the party faithful: most
importantly, however, there were very few Muslims. Now, she is trying to pull
in individually strong candidates whose personal popularity can override
considerations of caste — hence, for instance, the entry of Mukthar Ansari, who
has enormous influence in the Ghazipur-Mau belt of eastern UP, or former SP
leaders Ambika Choudhury and Narad Yadav in Ballia. Reports suggest that there
has been a late revival of the party in those parts as a result. The SP, on the
other hand, which started out with the burden of anti-incumbency and a family
feud, has succeeded in riding the storm. Most of its troubles appear to be
behind it, with the Akhilesh-Rahul combine ushering in the promise of a “new
generation” that would carve out a “new path” with a “new outlook”, as Akhilesh
said in a recent election speech.
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