Despite Pro-Incumbency, Karnataka Heading for Hung House! Any Takers??
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Just as everybody
was increasingly asking why there was a dearth of pre-polls for Karnataka, a string
of them were published, almost simultaneously. In this post, we comparatively
analyze 4 latest major tracker polls - Cfore, Karvy, Cvoter & VMR.
Both the media and opinion
polls had been trying for months to desperately paint the picture that the
Siddaramiah-Congress government in Karnataka was facing massive anti-incumbency,
while the Congress vehemently denied it.
Now a clutch of pre-polls vindicated
the Congress assertion. A poll of poll as later seen in this analysis, project
the Congress vote share above their 2013 performance, indicating that rather
than anti-incumbency, the Congress is actually enjoying pro-incumbency.
Secondly, when asked
whether life improved under a Siddaramiah government, more than half the
respondents nodded in agreement. If voters confirmed their life improved during the
last 5 years, where is the question of anti incumbency?
Thirdly the personal stock of Siddaramiah within the state is flying mighty high. 46% of respondents not only rated him their best Chief Minister in recent decades but also by a similar percentage as their best preferred Chief Minister. There is practically little challenge to him either within the party or outside. He stands as the tallest politician in the state, without any challenge.
Thirdly the personal stock of Siddaramiah within the state is flying mighty high. 46% of respondents not only rated him their best Chief Minister in recent decades but also by a similar percentage as their best preferred Chief Minister. There is practically little challenge to him either within the party or outside. He stands as the tallest politician in the state, without any challenge.
Everyone agrees that
Siddaramiah succeeded in making the contest a Presidential race. If so, the
numbers he poll should normally translate to those of the party he leads. If you look at
the breakdown for the VMR numbers for the Most Preferred CM candidate, you find
collectively Congress candidates commanding nearly 48% of votes, BJP 33% and
JDS nearly 20%. This is very close to the Cfore overall party wise vote shares.
The ELECTORAL EQUATIONS
for Karnataka is fairly simple. The Congress crosses simple majority mark when
their vote share hovers around 40%. Each 1% increase from there, increases
their majority further. If Congress touches 46% as Cfore had predicted, it is
clear what we would see is a Tsunami Wave. For the BJP, they need to first
restrict the Congress below 40% and touch 37% to cross the simple majority
mark. In the hypothetical case the Congress vote share crosses 40%, then the
BJP need to proportionately increase their vote share past 37%.
Accordingly if Cfore
indeed truly reflects the ground situation, then it is fairly clear that
Karnataka is a NO Contest. Under the circumstances, it is very tempting for the
BJP to use unethical Push Polls techniques in an attempt to induce bandwagon, tactical voting &
contagion effects. Political opinion polls are not always an accurate reflection
of public opinion. They could be also an "Opinion Making" Polls as
the JDS spokesperson on the IndiaToday panel summarily dismissed the Karvy
Poll. The aim of these pre-polls would to narrow the gap so that both
their cadres and voters remain enthuse to make the contest more competitive
than it is really is on the ground.
The non-Cfore bunch
of pre-polls apparently did not disappoint. They apparently scaled down
Congress below 40%, while projecting BJP inching towards the 37% mark and promising
shamelessly & openly that after Modi's campaign the BJP vote share would increase
further. Though vote wise and seat wise, all these pre-polls look almost
similar, a closer analysis indicates wide variations in their internals. For
the purpose of analysis, we have limited it to solely vote shares as seen
below.
Poll of Poll: Votes Shares by Region
Poll of Poll: Overall Vote Share
The Poll of Poll indicates the following
- Overall State,
Hyderabad Karnataka & Bangalore: Congress most likely to lead
- Central Karnataka:
BJP most likely to lead
- Mumbai Karnataka & Coastal Karnataka: Neck
to Neck
- South Karnataka: Fuzzy but Congress likely to
get better of JDS
There is a
temptation to brand Cfore an outlier, particularly since Congress part funded them
as their internal survey. However, not only their projected 46% vote share for
Congress finds high correlation with Siddaramiah's personal ratings as
confirmed by other pre-polls, the fact as seen below, this number is also in
sync with their demonstrated vote share during the last 5 years as seen below:
The BJP faces a lot
of constraints. They face a strong resistance at vote share band 33-34%. This
is mainly due to their extremely narrow social base, which is made worse
recently by erosion in their urban, Dalit & Lingayat segments. Even a 1% loss
in each of these segments can bring BJP down to 30%. However, the non-Cfore pre-polls
are all projecting BJP above this resistance bands with no
explanation why this buoyancy is happening. As seen earlier, the bogey of anti incumbency against the Congress government was busted by their own data! Accentuating their challenges, is
the fact that BJP has no presence in approximately 70 out of 224 seats, nearly
one third the total assembly seats.
The JDS though
depleted organizationally by defections, facing a funding crunch and loss of
secular votes is putting up a plucky fight in South Karnataka. Vokkaligas are
consolidating around JDS and this should erode some 1-2% vote share of both the
BJP & Congress respectively. The JDS has no presence in nearly 140 seats,
losing their deposits in 2013 in these seats. In 2014, the JDS was reduced to
just 11% vote share. Consequently projections of pre-polls of JDS vote share hovering
around 20% overall at the state level, i.e. nearly 100% increase viz-a-viz 2014
looks grossly unrealistic.
A tacit understanding between BJP and JDS is expected but only on select seats, not across the board. The JDS is fighting basically an existential battle. So it is highly unlikely they would transfer a significant chunk of their vote to BJP overall if they are not assured that they would not gain from it. If they end up 20-30 seats, then Shah would immediately get into his act to wholesale buy up their MLAs. they need to cross 40 seats to be safe and hence they would aim to increase their vote share as much as possible. Being a zero sum game, either BJP's or JDS' vote shares can get boosted, not both simultaneously as reflected in the non-Cfore pre polls.
A tacit understanding between BJP and JDS is expected but only on select seats, not across the board. The JDS is fighting basically an existential battle. So it is highly unlikely they would transfer a significant chunk of their vote to BJP overall if they are not assured that they would not gain from it. If they end up 20-30 seats, then Shah would immediately get into his act to wholesale buy up their MLAs. they need to cross 40 seats to be safe and hence they would aim to increase their vote share as much as possible. Being a zero sum game, either BJP's or JDS' vote shares can get boosted, not both simultaneously as reflected in the non-Cfore pre polls.
Most of these pre-polls
on the face look as push polls. A push
poll is an interactive marketing technique, most
commonly employed during political campaigning, where the aim is to manipulate
or alter prospective voters' views/beliefs under the guise of conducting or
disseminating findings of an opinion poll. These
are primarily to distribute propaganda rather than to understand the views and
opinions of the public.
As we get closer to voting day expect more such polls, that project
BJP decisively leading due to the "Modi Effect". Just as the BJP carpet bombs their advertisements in
each and every paper, they are surely cash rich to buy off most polling
agencies.
Would such tactics work? Sometimes it does. But not always. We have Vajpayee in 2004 where
push polls faced their Waterloo. In the US, Trump overcome literally a battery
of push polls to win the US Presidency. Ditto Brexit and attempts to
marginalise Jeremy Corbyn. So let's wait for May 15th to find out...
Archives:
Karvy & Cvoter
Polls: Karnataka Stuck in a Time Warp! Nothing Changed Since 2013!! Read Here
Karnataka Polls
2018: Who among pollsters will end up the Winners & Losers? Read Here
KarnatakaElections:
Would the spectre of a JDS-BJP Coalition Spook Off Voters??? Read Here
1 comments
HUNG ASSEMBLY FOR SURE. BJP WILL BE DROWNED BY LINGAYATS..CONG. CLOSER TO MAJORITY, BUT NONE WILL SUPPORT THEM TO HEAD GOVT.BUT 3RD FRONT NOT AVERSE ACCEPTING CONG. OUTSIDE SUPPORT.
ReplyDelete