Scenting BJP Will Be Routed In The Assembly Polls, Cries Of Emperor Has No Clothes Get Only Louder??
Friday, February 17, 2017
“If the solution or
the idea is right, it will go like a hot knife through butter. If the idea is
not working for example demonetisation, don’t blame the execution, I think your
idea itself is wrong...If your innovation in the country depends on government
approval or judicial process, it will not be a case of ‘Made in India’ but ‘Mad
in India’”
That is Rajiv Bajaj,
Managing Director, Bajaj Auto. When leading corporate houses in the country
gather courage to publicly proclaim ‘The Emperor has No Clothes’ we can sense
the change of mood in the country. AG Noorani writing in the Frontline
describes this change most lucidly:
“Just half-way
through his term in office as Prime Minister, Narendra Modi faces
disenchantment to a high degree. Demonetisation only served to remind the
people of lapses they had overlooked. He hugely personalised demonetisation.
The gamble failed. The slide downwards has begun. The Emperor has no clothes on
him.
Modi’s hysterical
performances reveal his panic at the wide public disenchantment in the wake of
his quixotic decision on demonetisation of Rs.1,000 and Rs.500 currency notes
on November 8. This was the first major test of his mettle and he has been
found wanting. Slogans, his favourite ploy, do not help (vikas, vishwas, et
al). People want answers; they demand accountability for the havoc he created.
But the concept is foreign to him.
He has deployed
every trick in the book to build himself up as a mass leader, above the party
(Bharatiya Janata Party) and even its parent (the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh),
and above institutions, Parliament and the judiciary. His technique was
continuous electioneering, doling out slogans, impugning the integrity of
critics and opponents without a thought for accountability to Parliament. He
began by going over the heads of Cabinet colleagues to civil servants (vide the
writer’s article “Modifying Democracy”, Frontline, July 11, 2014). He is now
reduced to embarking on a course of cheap demagogy. It will not work.”
And the opposition
scents victory in the ongoing 5 State Assembly elections. In an exclusive
interview to NDTV, former Home and Finance Minister P Chidambaram spoke about
the impact of the ongoing state elections on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's
political image. "In my assessment, the BJP has already lost Punjab... If
BJP loses UP, it will be a huge setback for the PM. Voices will be raised
within his own party," Mr Chidambaram said. On whether PM Modi is a 'messiah-like
figure', he said, "No one is unbeatable".
So now we are seeing
an interesting spate of articles in the media speculating on not only the
extent of rout the BJP is expected to face in the 5 State Assembly elections
but more importantly their impact on Indian politics, particularly the future
of Modi-Shah duo. One of the most brilliant pieces had been written by
Siddharth Bhatia in Wire.in whose extracts we are reproducing....
Indian politics is
in a churn. Two-and-a-half years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
resounding victory, when it appeared that the opposition parties had been so
bulldozed such that they would not recover for a very long time, they are back
with renewed confidence while Modi is looking and sounding defensive.
The elections in
Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are of course the most crucial, but even the local
municipal elections in Mumbai and nine other towns in Maharashtra are not
without significance. Add to that the turmoil in Tamil Nadu, which is yet to
run its full course, and the elections in Gujarat later this year.
The general feeling,
it is hoped, seems to be that the Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul Gandhi combine will sail
through in UP. Yadav has come out of the family spat looking good, and has
successfully elevated himself from being a mere sectarian leader to a young and
modern politician committed to development. The BJP, with its polarisation,
anti-Congress rhetoric and tall promises sounds jaded; Yadav comes across as
fresh. Mayawati is in the wings and she too could spring a surprise. True to
form, the Yogi Adityanaths have upped the communal content of the campaign, but
will that wash away the brutal memories of demonetisation?
If, despite these
predictions, the BJP pulls through, it will be a miracle and boost the party’s
confidence. If it comes second or worse, the party could face internal
dissonance; questions will be asked about Amit Shah and his style of working.
A failure to win key
elections will have three potential outcomes. In the immediate term, there will
be an impact on the mid-year election of the new president after Pranab
Mukherjee’s term expires. The NDA does not have the requisite numbers in the
Electoral College and needs the support of the non-NDA, non-UPA parties, which
would back Modi if the BJP is fresh out of a victory in UP and elsewhere. A
loss will undoubtedly decrease his clout and the combined opposition – and
silent dissidents within the NDA – could thwart his plans.
Secondly, opposition
parties, encouraged by the BJP’s loss, will once again begin to look for ways
to come together. This is, of course, easier said than done, given the
conflicting aims and claims, but the Bihar and UP coalitions show that it is
possible. If various parties, in their own self-interest, agree to align behind
one leader, a credible platform could emerge. The BJP will certainly not want
this to happen.
But the biggest
question is, what bearing will an electoral loss have on the BJP itself? Modi’s
position remains unassailable, but will Shah be safe? Will he be able to call
the shots, no questions asked? Or will his detractors and critics and those
whom he has sidelined go after him?
Read the full
article: HERE
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