NDTV: Congress Vote Share can shoot past 45% in Punjab

Thursday, February 02, 2017

At last, the media is divulging the truth which pollsters try to hide?? A two-third majority is easily within reach of the Congress by virtue of a double digit lead over AAP. 

This should be earth shattering news to AAP. They have already reconciled to the loss of their Goan dream. Now they have to come to terms with loss of their Punjab fantasy and the fact that they are a regional party of a half state Delhi

                               Congress has a better chance of winning Punjab                                                                                                      Courtesy: Uddipta Das, India.com                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
Punjab elections have lots of player this year, but media reports claim that the Congress has a better chance of winning the Punjab assembly elections of 2017. As Punjab sets to vote on Saturday for 117 assembly constituencies, a party needs 59 seats to secure a majority and if election forecasts are to be believed, then Congress might just be that party with majority votes.

According to NDTV, various polls conducted recently point that Congress has 45 per cent chances of winning with 45 per cent of the votes, followed by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with 35 per cent and finally the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP) alliance with 20 per cent votes. This can be attributed to the party’s chief ministerial candidate Captain Amarinder Singh, and recent joiner Navjot Singh Sidhu, who is known to have considerable influence over many in Punjab.

As per the NDTV report, Sikh voters are more inclined towards the Akalis, while the Hindus are supportive of the Congress. The report further state that the divide in Punjab is not religious but is between the rural and the urban areas. Reportedly, rural Punjab has 85 seats and urban Punjab has only 32. To compare the results of the general elections of 2014, the Congress won equivalent of 19 urban seats and the Akalis won equivalent of 39 rural seats.

If the religious angle is taken into consideration, the Sikhs will keep on supporting the Akalis, while the Hindus might hang in between the Congress and the right wing BJP. Furthermore, all these precedents lack one factor. That is Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP. Undoubtedly, the war is not just between the congress and the Akali-BJP, but with the involvement of AAP, the dynamics does change to an extent.

But AAP also has in their chief ministerial candidate a relatively weaker candidate that is well known comedian Bhagwant Mann. The only scope that AAP has of winning in the election is using their anti-corruption mantra. But the primary strength of Congress lies in their candidates. And if that works for them, there is no doubt that Congress has a better chance of winning the Punjab polls.

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