An analysis of UP exit polls indicate that results could be diametrically opposite

AAP


Ask anybody. Last evening whatever little faith people had on pollsters, mostly evaporated almost totally after watching the slew of exit polls published yesterday. Even Rajdeep Sardesai who anchored one such programme on IndiaToday and Shivam Vij, Dy Editor of HuffPo appeared to have given up on the absurdity viewers were subjected to last night in the name of exit polls. 

Most of these polls bandied around seat shares, while only a handful were prepared to give details of their vote shares or survey internals.  While it is difficult to undertake a critique of these polls in all 5 states whose assemblies went for election, due to constraints of time, we limit our critique to UP as found below. Time permitting we would try to critique exit polls of other states later today..


To note CVoter is an Exit Poll while both CSDS & Today’s Chankaya (TC) are post polls. As observed from the table, the commonality among the three polling agencies projections is that the main contestants are between SP-Congress combine and BJP, with BSP coming in third position. 

The second commonality is the vote share estimation of the SP-Congress Alliance by all the three polling agencies is 32-33%. So a consensus exist that the Alliance is up 2-3% from 2014 and in doing so, demonstrating positive momentum with them. 

BSP in 2014 registered a tad less than 20% Accordingly, all three polling agencies acknowledge that BSP too is a net gainer by vote share, with CVoter & CSDS projecting the magnitude around +5% while according to TC, net gains are marginal viz around 0.5%. 

The real difference among the polling agencies comes to projections of BJP’s vote share. CVoter & CSDS projects this in the region of 32-33% - this reflects a 10% negative swing from 2014 or in other words, the BJP is experiencing strong negative momentum. The 1.1% difference between CSDS & CVoter is not really statistically significant as it comes within both polls Margin of Error (MoE). Whereas TC projects BJP at 42% - practically no change from 2014 Lok Sabha polls where NDA registered 42.3% So the difference between TC and CDSS-CVoter is basically accounted by TC squeezing BSP & ‘Others’

The TC projections are simply flabbergasting for two major reasons as elaborated below:


1. To reach 240-250 seats, the BJP has to maintain a strike rate of 60%+ for every phase, including the first two phases in Western UP where a very perceptible anti-BJP wave among the Jats was sensed. Further ground reports from different journalists suggest that the constituency level fights were very intense that such strike rates as TC projects would immediately raise suspicions of EVM rigging that would cause huge public uproar over the fairness of the polls. 

2. The internals of the TC survey strikes immediately as totally contradictory to the numbers TC projected and have led to widespread suspicion expressed in social media that their numbers had been crudely manipulated.

3.  By and large both pre-polls and exit/post polls have tended to over-estimate the BJP and under-estimate the opposition particularly the BSP. Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha insists that the Alliance do not even see BJP crossing 30% vote threshold.  Accordingly, a conservative statistical adjustment for treatment of such biases could see the Alliance cruise comfortably pass the finish line with 190+ with BJP trailing far behind at 120 seat levels. See earlier table columns marked in yellow.

Shivam Vij in a totally captivating article today in HuffPo observed “In such an election, the BSP is the X factor. It is the BSP's performance that is the most unpredictable, and the most fortuitous. The more votes the BSP took away, the more it hurt the BJP, though in many places it seemed to be hurting the SP-Congress too.” Read full article HERE. 
This blog totally share this view of BSP being the X factor except that we feel the more BSP does well; it tends to more hurt the BJP rather than the Alliance.




UP Elections: Rajdeep Sardesai Attracts Flak for Unethical Journalism!

AAP


Rajdeep Sardesai and his wife Sarigika Ghose had been for long been the target of right wing abuse, including physical attack. So much they hate the duo; they once even circulated a photo of Rajdeep as a terrorist and planted it in an Oriya newspaper. Last year Rajdeep defiantly penned an article where he proclaimed:

“When I was first accused of being ‘anti-national’ on social media, I was angry. Now, a few years later, the current coarse political discourse, where desh bhakti certificates are being liberally distributed, tempts me to scream: garv se kaho hum desh-drohi hai (proud to be ‘anti-national’).

Given such a background, eyebrows were raised when both he and his wife, began to call UP election for the BJP even when the poll process was mid-way. While the Left wing ostensibly shocked did not overtly react, it was fellow journalists who took up the gauntlet on challenging Rajdeep Sardesai. In a hard hitting article in The Quint, Mayank Mishra & Chandan Nandy virtually blows into smithereens all Sardesai’s arguments for calling UP for BJP, though they did not mention him by name, the extracts of which could be found below.


It has been quite an experience, for more than one reason, to read reports and columns by veteran journalists, calling the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). One such column appeared in the Hindustan Times on Friday.

The arguments are mostly the same – the BJP has stitched together a broad, and seemingly invincible, coalition of upper castes, extreme backward classes and non-Jatav Dalits. These journalists argue that sheer numbers have placed the BJP at pole position.

The argument is that even if the BJP’s vote share drops by a staggering 10 percent, compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it will still have enough votes to get an absolute majority in the 403-member UP assembly. 

Different Voting Patterns for Assembly and General Elections

Do we need to remind seasoned opinion makers that people vote differently, and for different issues, in the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections?

In 2012, the BJP managed to win only 15 percent of the popular vote, with the Samajwadi Party (SP) bagging 29.13 percent – which was sufficient to propel it to power on the basis of the first-past-the-post principle. Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 25.91 percent.

The data suggests that in 2012, the polity was fragmented. Travels across western UP (where elections have already been held) and eastern UP (where polling is scheduled for 4 and 8 March) indicate that voters were, and remain, unsure about which party to vote for – some of the responses may be attributed to hedging, or even a polite refusal to disclose preference.

Are there no state-level issues that will play on voters’ minds before they cast their ballots?

UP’s voters have much to think about: the baby steps that Akhilesh Yadav’s government has taken on the development (vikas) front; the SP’s patronage politics, that makes a difference in the lives of people living on the margins; a young CM candidate, who appears to have successfully weathered the storm within his own party, to emerge a “powerful” leader, and his promise to rid the state of gunda raj; not to mention the ubiquitous caste (read Yadav) politics, in which the SP is a champion player. 

While much has been said and written about the SP-Congress alliance and its fortunes, the BSP is no bit player. It enjoys substantial support among the Dalit community, especially the Jatavs, across all districts of UP.

The Mayawati-led party has certainly been hit by demonetisation, but in western UP, it could well end up with the bulk of the seats in its kitty.

Do sweeping generalisations take these differences into consideration?

Predictions make for interesting reading when backed by some numbers and empirical evidence – the number of people spoken to from such broad caste groups, for instance. What has been predicted may well turn out to be true.

But by making such sweeping statements, with a view to create a “favourable” perception for a party to the detriment of others, has an attempt been made to set a new precedent in journalism?

Post script: 

One newspaper column used wrong data on the BJP’s vote in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections. In Bihar, the BJP’s vote share was not 34 percent, but merely 24.42 percent. Social science research methods tell us that data, especially quantitative data, must not only be reliable but also valid.

Read the full article: HERE


Like us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter