Uttarakhand Assembly Polls 2017: How Credible Congress Internal Polls?
Monday, January 30, 2017
Uttarakhand Congress
Chief Kishore Upadhyay in a press conference last month announced that a
pre-poll internal survey conducted by the Congress in the state has predicted
that the party will win 33 out of 70 seats in the state. Apart from projecting
the party's victory in 33 seats, the survey also puts it in a formidable
position in another 10 seats. Interpreting it as an indication that the
Congress may win 43 seats, Upadhyay said if it happens it will be the biggest
electoral victory for a party in the history of the state.
2012 ASSEMBLY RESULTS
|
||
Party
|
Vote Share (%)
|
Seat Share (No)
|
INC
|
33.79
|
32
|
BJP
|
33.12
|
31
|
BSP
|
12.19
|
1
|
UKD
|
1.93
|
1
|
Others
|
12.34
|
3
|
The Congress did not
divulge their vote share projections or those of others. During the 2012
Assembly polls, the Congress registered around 34% and secured 32 seats. Accordingly to reach 33-43 seats, it is a reasonably
safe assumption that the Congress needs a vote share ranging at least between
34-40%.
So
are these projections of their internal polls realistic or just spin? Can this
be validated by the clutch of published polls? So let’s look at them.
POLL
|
Seat
Share (No)
|
Vote
Share (No)
|
|||||
BJP
|
INC
|
Others
|
BJP
|
INC
|
Others
|
Undecided
|
|
UTTARAKHAND
POST
|
29
|
36
|
5
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
|
LOKNITI
|
39 (35-43)
|
26 (22-30)
|
0
|
40
|
33
|
23
|
|
AXIS
|
40
|
28
|
2
|
45
|
33
|
22
|
|
CVOTER
|
22 (20-24)
|
36 (34-38)
|
8 (6-10)
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
|
VDP
ASSOCIATES*
|
40
|
24
|
6
|
39
|
34
|
13
|
7%
|
HAMSA
|
38 (37-39)
|
28 (27-29)
|
4
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
|
Av/Range
|
31 (22-40)
|
31 (26-36)
|
4 (0-8)
|
42 (39-45)
|
33
|
18 (13-23)
|
-
|
When
analyzing published polls, it is useful to keep in mind the following:
-
VDP
Associates were the only polling agency that revealed that at least 7% of their
respondents remain “undecided”. This does not mean that other polls did not
confront the problem of ‘undecided’. It only means that either these were not
revealed or had been statistically treated to assume their polling preferences
to one or other political parties. One of the major reasons pollsters
experience discrepancies between their poll predictions and subsequent election
outcomes the world over is the proportion of undecided respondents in their
poll samples. We witnessed this phenomenon in the recent US Presidential
elections too. This category of “undecided” could often be a game changer and
usually includes within it sub-categories not willing to declare their voter
intentions. Mostly socially vulnerable groups like Dalits belong to the latter
category which are one of the reasons the vote share of parties like BSP are
often grossly under-estimated by polls. Lower in the caste hierarchy, the lower
the probability of being fully articulate of one’s political preferences or
dislike
-
Most
election forecasters in India agree that the trickiest part of forecasting an
election is conversion of vote shares to seats. In India's first-past-the-post
elections, it is a nightmare to convert vote shares to seat shares. In the UK,
which follows the same electoral system, pollsters are bold on vote share
forecasts but are usually discreet about predicting numbers of seats. But last
year, UK pollsters threw such discretion to the wind to mostly predict a Labour
victory, only to end up red faced to find David's Cameron's Conservatives chalk
out a much bigger second term victory. Yashwant Desmukh of CVoter argues that
in India it is not so much the case of pollsters but TRP hungry TV News
channels that hype seat shares. We see this problem of vote-seat conversion
within the clutch of published polls for Uttarakhand too. VDP Associates
projecting BJP 40 seats with a 5% lead, while Axis projecting the same number
of seats for the BJP despite a whopping 12% lead.
-
In
any elections, a handful of polls could be dismissed as statistical outliers.
In the case of the clutch of published polls for Uttarakhand, the Axis poll apparently
stands out as a sore thumb. It is not so much that outlier polls cannot turn
out right. They could in occasions, like Chankaya’s 2014 Lok Sabha poll
projections. But the probability of them doing so is usually statistically very
low. But the Axis poll projections additionally look extremely suspect for
another reason. Despite a whopping 12% vote share lead for BJP, the poll
projected just a 12 seat lead for BJP instead of a Tsunami Wave wiping out the seat
share of Congress all together. This in a state like Uttarakhand where
historically, small vote differences resulted in huge seat margins.
By and large, polls
in India tend to over-estimate the BJP and under-estimate opposition parties
including the Congress. A classic example is Bihar when even their exit polls
missed the mark by a mile. Exit polls internationally are expected to conform
to standards of + 1% Margin of Error (MoE) as compared to pre-polls where a MoE of 3-4% are
considered acceptable as a standard. Even in 2012 Lok Sabha as the graph below
illustrates, pollsters once again demonstrated this tendency.
Despite all these drawbacks, what do the
vote shares of these published polls collectively tell? This blog had not been
able to get full data on vote shares. But from those available, the following
could be concluded:
-
The
prediction for Uttarakhand is a mixed bag, though more polls tend to bet on the
BJP winning the state, and smartly too.
-
The
Congress retains its 2012 Assembly vote share of around 34%, even in the case
of outlier Axis poll. In fact, despite the Modi Wave of 2014 that also
encompassed Uttarakhand, 34% vote base of the Congress had not breeched. This
is suggests an absence of serious anti-incumbency viz non slippage of votes.
-
In
contrast the BJP viz-a-viz Lok Sabha 2014 has suffered a whopping vote erosion
projected between 10-15% depending on which poll viz. the party is experiencing
massive negative momentum.
-
If
the Axis poll, is ignored being a statistical outlier, the poll of polls
suggest BJP’s vote share around 39% and the Congress 34% - just a difference of
5%. Though opinion polls in India claim a + 3% margin of error (MoE),
their track record most often reveals their MoE is at least + 5%.
-
Given
that polls tend to over-estimate BJP and under-estimate the Congress, and if
this factored, in the best of scenarios, the Congress could be even marginally
ahead. Even if otherwise, the Congress main challenge would be to attract at
least a 3% vote swing from the BJP that could enable to catapult them to sneak
past the finishing line. Is that possible? Looks like if Prashant Kishore is
advising their campaign and he would not have taken up the assignment if he
felt Congress did not have a ghost of a chance like he did turning Assam
assignment down. Kishore was behind Modi’s brilliant campaign in 2014 Lok Sabha
polls and Nitesh Kumar led alliance win in Bihar.
-
Further,
apart from 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the contests in this state have always been razor
thin close. For example TV channels had predicted a BJP victory in 2012 on the
day of counting, based on leads; however, Congress emerged as the ultimate
winner.
Party
|
Vote Shares (%)
|
Vote Swing (%)
|
|||||
2012 (Actual)
|
2014 (Actual)
|
Dec 2016
|
Jan 2017
|
From
2012
|
From
2014
|
From
Dec to Jan
|
|
BJP
|
34
|
55
|
40
|
39
|
+5
|
-16
|
-1
|
Congress
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
36
|
+2
|
+2
|
+2
|
Others
|
32
|
11
|
26
|
25
|
-7
|
+14
|
-1
|
This is the latest CSDS
poll (31st January 2017) based on mid January field data before the
campaign had actually started. What we find is the BJP continuing to lose vote
share (momentum is negative) while the Congress is gaining momentum and
demonstrating pro incumbency (+2% viz-a-vis both 2012 and 2014). It is gaining
both from the BJP as well as others.What is most heartening news for the Congress is the Muslim-Dalit consolidation behind it which should further accelerate. The bad news for BJP is that it is losing the Dalit votes it attracted in 2014. If this trend continues, the state can allude a win for the party.
Accordingly, prima facie the Congress claim of 33-44 seats based on their internal survey could well be realistic and most likely that the state could witness a cliff hanger battle. This could be the key significant battle of this 5 state assembly poll season. If on the other hand, the published polls of media are in the right direction, the BJP should be able to coast away to most probably a landslide victory. The X Factor will be turnout. A lower turnout (base 2014) should favour the Congress.
Below
given in the tabular form are the strengths and weakness of both the BJP and
Congress. The battle for Uttarakhand looks a bit fuzzy but primarily revolves
how well or badly Mayawati of the BSP performs.
BJP
|
|
What’s
favourable going on?
|
What’s
unfavourable going on?
|
1.
BJP is in the right side of historical trends. Like Kerala, Uttarakhand,
public throws out the incumbent government every five years. And this has
happened since inception of the state with Congress and the BJP taking alternate
turns in ruling the state.
|
1.
No CM candidate
|
2.
Out of the 5 states going to poll, only Goa and Uttarakhand offer the BJP a reasonable
chance of winning. With chances in Uttarakhand much higher than Goa, the
central leadership is pulling all stops to win the state.
|
2.
BJP has no leader of stature that can match Congress Harish Rawat in the
state.
|
3.
With the exception of 2014 Lok Sabha, the state is highly polarised between
support for the BJP and Congress respectively in somewhat equal strength
|
3.
Faces a double whammy – no perceptible anti-incumbency at the state level
against the Congress while experiencing huge anti-incumbency at the central
level. The BJP is finding difficulty to hang on to whatever little lead it
has over the Congress. Not only has the Modi Wave fast dissipating, but Modi
himself is now a shade of himself as a vote catcher 2014.
|
4. Though crowds seem to have deserted Modi in
other states, he still drew a somewhat sizeable decent crowd at his recent
Parivartan Rally in Dehradun. This could indicate that unlike other states
going to poll, BJP’s core support base is more or less intact and demonstrate no
evidence of total collapse as compared to other states
|
4.
The BJP is deeply faction riven and this is embodied by the fact that it has
4 CM hopefuls. Rebellion and no cooperation from cadres could prove very
costly to the party, particularly in seats where the contest is very fierce.
|
5.
BJP is betting on replicating the successful Assam formula in Uttarakhand.
Finding it unable to enthuse the electorate by themselves, they try to weaken
the opposition and by giving tickets to defectors who are assumed to have
high connect with voters, augmenting BJP voter strength, to boost their strike
rate.
|
5.
The party is unable to come out with an innovative message of change in their
campaign. The Assam strategy from media reports doesn’t seem working as it
seems have widely demotivated and alienated the loyal party workers, upset at
defectors being given both prominence within the party and given tickets. The
ex Congress CM, Bahuguna has reportedly emerged one of the centre of rival powers,
increasing factionalism
|
6. The party strategy is to win two of three
regions of the state, targeting Garhwal and at least one more, transcending
traditional Thakur-Brahmin support base to woo the Dalit vote, failing which,
hoping they go to Mayawati rather than boost Congress vote share. The BJP
should do well in Garhwal region. Standing no chance in Kumaun Hills, the
battle for Uttarakhand comes down to the Tera/Maidani region.
|
6
But the party is finding immense difficulty in transcending its traditional
Thakur-Brahmin base. Dalits are leaving the party en masse is one of the
reasons why BJP is finding themselves in fast decline. To stem this erosion, the party
opted to induct leadership of this community by engineering defection mainly from
the Congress. The backup plan also seems failing as Mayawati appears just a
shadow of herself in the state as compared to 2012.
|
7. The party also finds itself unable to hold
on to a section of Muslim votes it attracted in 2014. Fearing that the
Muslims will consolidate around the political force best placed to beat the
BJP, their hope centres around Mayawati mopping these votes. But again Mayawati,
if she is not able to hold on to Dalit votes, is highly unlikely to attract
Muslim consolidation so it is advantage Congress
|
|
CM Preference
(CSDS-ABP News survey: Jan 31st 2017)
|
|
Harish Rawat
|
31
|
BC Khandari
|
14
|
Other BJP leaders
|
18
|
Other Congress
Leaders
|
2
|
Leaders from other
parties
|
1
|
Not divulge
preference
|
34
|
| CONGRESS | |
What’s
favourable going on?
|
What’s
unfavourable going on?
|
1.
Harish Rawat has emerged the tallest leader not only within the Congress but
the entire state of Uttarakhand. Most polls rate him as the most preferred CM
candidate among those standing for elections – as much as with a 30% lead
|
1.
Harish Rawat is embroiled with a corruption scam allegation, which taken a
small toll on his personal image in the state
|
2.
Despite some corruption allegations, the Congress Administration had
delivered good governance by the state’s historical experience. This has
prevented the Congress from anti-incumbency eroding its vote base. Rawat has
introduced and delivered many populist schemes that not only help him retain
public support but could hold the potential of increasing it.
|
2.
The Congress party lost most of its top leadership. “Congress is practically
finished in Uttarakhand. It is only Harish Rawat as an individual who would
be fighting the BJP in the ensuing election”; says a former CM and BJP leader
from the state.
|
3. With most dissidents and potential
turncoats already exported to the BJP, the Congress goes to poll as a much
more unified party, with lesser dissent. The additional flip side was that
Congress managed to get rid of most of its anti-incumbency against sitting
MLAs and Ministers by dumping them on to the BJP and by inducting fresher
faces as candidates.
|
3.
The BJP did not engineer defections at random but specifically targeted the
Dalit & Backward leadership of the Congress. These include a minister
Yashpal Arya. Mr Arya, a prominent Dalit leader, the Chairman of the State
Council for Backward Classes, Santosh Kashyap, and State OBC Cell chairman,
Shekhar Kashyap. In July 2016, Modi, inducted BJP's Almora Lok Sabha MP Ajay
Tamta, a prominent Dalit face in Uttarakhand, as part of the BJP's attempt to
reach out to Dalits and OBCs.
|
4.
Rawat is the strongman from Kumaun Hills and expected to clean sweep the
region. The Congress strategy is to give a fight for Garhwal and win Terai/Maidan
where Dalits (19%) and Muslims (15%) hold the key to winning. With Mayawati
weakened and the contagion effect in the state of the SP-Congress Tsunami
Wave in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress hopes to consolidate Muslim votes and
grab a significant chunk of Dalit votes
|
4.
Nine out of 10 Congress MLAs who rebelled and quit the party are also from
Garhwal and its adjoining plains. Consequently, Congress is not expected to
get the upper edge in Garhwal. It suits them to concentrate on Terai to win
the state.
|
1 comments
Propoganda.If BJP gets anything less than 40 seats,I will bookmark this blog and sing praises aout your analysises
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