UP Elections: CSDS Predicts BJP Trailing, Alliance Coasting to Win after 5th Phase

Saturday, March 04, 2017

“The big q is will BJP gain enough in the final 2 phases to make up for what appears to be below expectation performance in early phases.... Striking to see BSP has 20-25% vote in a few seats in all districts across UP. Its prospects hinge on whether it can take that upto 30+” 

-       Prashant Jha, Associate Editor, HindustanTimes    -

These tweets coming from Jha, who predicted in a huge surge of support for BJP in the Phase 5 is significant. Jha’s whose ground reports from the campaign trail is widely followed in the country gives us more than a hint that BJP is clearly trailing and that the BSP is lanquishing at third place, not living up to its potential as “dark horse. 

We get a similar confirmation from Praveen Rai, who is political analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. Found below are extracts from Rai’s article, a cover story in The Open Magazine.

With eight out of ten voters now having exercised their franchise in the state, the battle of ballots is entering its conclusionary stage, which can still alter the mandate locked up in EVMs. However, the eerie silence of the UP electorate is not only intriguing but also baffling poll watchers.

A round-up of the first five phases of elections appears to indicate a subtle groundswell of support for the SP-Congress combine, which has not only overcome the loss of votes due to a change-of-guard in the SP, but also got the alliance arithmetic correct on the electoral turf. 

The BJP seems to have lost its momentum after takeoff due to its failure in projecting a credible chief ministerial face coupled with diminishing returns of the ‘Modi wave’, which makes it susceptible to a repeat of Bihar’s 2015 electoral outcome. The BJP may need a miracle in the last phases or wait for the eventuality of the Congress’ hand knocking off the SP bicycle to finish first on the victory podium. 

The BSP, written off by pollsters, seems to have regained its once- dissipating support base (as seen in its 2014 setback) and remains a dark horse.

Read the whole article: HERE

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