Exponentially Declining Vote Share: Does It Make BJP Extremely Vulnerable??

Monday, January 30, 2017

32 months after a spectacular Lok Sabha win, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing an extremely uphill battle to continue its winning streak. 

Vote share analysis of the party for 12 states that went to polls after May 2014 suggest a steep erosion in 9 states; in 2 other states the increase was not statistical significant and in one state (Puducherry) it is not even comparable as the party did not contest the Lok Sabha seat. If these trends continue and intensify for the forthcoming 5 State Assembly polls, the BJP is well and truly vulnerable. Besides, in states like Punjab and Goa, the BJP faces the additional prospect of a different kind of anti-incumbency, being the state government. 

To top it all, is the demonetisation issue that is widely accepted as the acid test for the Modi Government in these forthcoming assembly polls. State elections have their own flavour, mostly decided by local issues. But demonetisation which has touched every countryman will be common factor to all five elections. BJP claim Modi has created a ‘pro-poor’ image for himself by taking an ‘anti-rich’ position and this should reverse the vote share slide seen during the last 32 months. The BJP themselves have themselves raised the stakes of these elections by terming the results of this forthcoming polls as a referendum on demonetisation. 

Opposition parties on the other hand are counting on people’s anger against demonetisation, the reactions to which are reflected by stray utterances of key BJP ministers, both at the centre and at the state, and scathing criticism by their allies like Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and Telegu Desam. 

Most of the published pre-poll surveys were undertaken in the early days of implementation of demonetisation and may not have fully factored in the real impact and its intensification which is expected to only kick in by late January. If this assumption holds, the BJP may face a decline of at least 15%+ of their vote share viz-a-viz 2014.

You Might Also Like


  1. One thing:National and state elections are different.National parties perform differently in these elections,and local parties and independents get more votes


Like us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter