Exponentially Declining Vote Share: Does It Make BJP Extremely Vulnerable??
Monday, January 30, 2017
32 months after a
spectacular Lok Sabha win, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing an extremely
uphill battle to continue its winning streak.
Vote share analysis
of the party for 12 states that went to polls after May 2014 suggest a steep
erosion in 9 states; in 2 other states the increase was not statistical
significant and in one state (Puducherry) it is not even comparable as the
party did not contest the Lok Sabha seat. If these trends continue and
intensify for the forthcoming 5 State Assembly polls, the BJP is well and truly
vulnerable. Besides, in states like Punjab and Goa, the BJP faces the
additional prospect of a different kind of anti-incumbency, being the state government.
To top it all, is
the demonetisation issue that is widely accepted as the acid test for the Modi
Government in these forthcoming assembly polls. State elections have their own
flavour, mostly decided by local issues. But demonetisation which has touched
every countryman will be common factor to all five elections. BJP claim Modi
has created a ‘pro-poor’ image for himself by taking an ‘anti-rich’ position
and this should reverse the vote share slide seen during the last 32 months.
The BJP themselves have themselves raised the stakes of these elections by
terming the results of this forthcoming polls as a referendum on
demonetisation.
Opposition parties
on the other hand are counting on people’s anger against demonetisation, the reactions
to which are reflected by stray utterances of key BJP ministers, both at the
centre and at the state, and scathing criticism by their allies like Shiv Sena,
Akali Dal and Telegu Desam.
Most of the
published pre-poll surveys were undertaken in the early days of implementation
of demonetisation and may not have fully factored in the real impact and its
intensification which is expected to only kick in by late January. If this
assumption holds, the BJP may face a decline of at least 15%+ of their vote share viz-a-viz
2014.
1 comments
One thing:National and state elections are different.National parties perform differently in these elections,and local parties and independents get more votes
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