Will psephologists crack the UP mystery this time?

Courtesy: First Post

Uttar Pradesh will remain the psephologist’s ultimate challenge forever. Why? The answer is rather cliched: the voter mood in the state is too complex. His choice is a product of too many influences around him, which makes him unpredictable. Moreover, he is more unlikely to open up than voters in other places because it entails too much risk. That makes catching a trend in the state so difficult.

So when you get glued to your television sets watching exit polls, take the numbers being dished out with a pinch of disbelief. For clarity let’s have a look at the surveys — pre-poll, post-poll and exit poll — of 2007.

The Indian Express-CNNIBN-CSDS pre-poll survey placed the SP’s tally in the 145-155 band; the BSP’s between 140 and 150 and the BJP’s between 50 and 60. The numbers changed in the post-poll survey with the SP’s numbers getting pruned drastically to 100-110 and the BJP’s tally in the 90-100 bracket. The BSP held steady with a small revision, between 145 and 155.

The Times Now-Hansa exit poll put the SP’s tally between 100-110; the BSP’s between 116 and 126; and the BJP’s between 114-124. The NDTV-IMRB exit poll placed the SP between 113 and 123, the BSP between 117 and 127 and the BJP between 108 and 118. Star News-Nielson exit poll put the SP’s tally at 96, the BSP’s at 137 and the BJP’s at 108. The Congress came uniformly at the bottom of the heap in all surveys.

The final results were a surprise for all. The BSP virtually swept the polls with 206 seats. The SP bagged 97 seats and the BJP 51. The Congress scored the lowest with 22 seats. All the surveys fell short of the mark. In fact, none caught the trend right. It is curious that all surveys missed the wave in favour of the BSP or the anti-incumbency mood against the SP. There were wide variations in the number of seats the exit polls projected for the BJP.

How could all of them go so wrong? Blame it on the mysterious UP voter. Admitted, psephology still has some way to go to shape up as a perfect science but all the exit polls could not have been so inaccurate had the subjects surveyed been clear. It is not possible that there was a dramatic change in the voter mood immediately before the election which the surveys failed to catch. And there is little to justify the allegation in certain quarters that such polls are opinions, not opinion polls.

Here’s the trend in UP this election that meets the eye. There’s an anti-incumbency mood against Mayawati’s BSP. The beneficiary of it would be the SP. The Congress has earned goodwill but it might or might not translate into seats. The BJP will be in competition with the Congress for the third slot. But how does it translate into seats for individual parties? That is where the challenge for the psephologists lie.

Some UP poll watchers are of the view that a big shift happens in the final phases of the elections. People get a sense of the winner and there’s a bandwagon effect. The accuracy of the pre-poll surveys depend on the point of time they are conducted. There will be pronounced difference in the projections between surveys conducted immediately after the announcement of the polls and those conducted after the polls. Also, a lot of strategic voting takes place in the state, they say. It is not likely that voters would make their voting preference be known to outsiders.

In the case of the BSP in 2007, the swing in favour of the party had more to do with the anger against the SP’s goondaism than her rainbow coalition, which many analysts credit the party’s success entirely to. This time the coalition looks shattered and there’s some anger against Mayawati. But would the surveys be able to catch the drift away from the BSP and convert it into numbers?

It will be interesting to watch the exit polls results. Hope they crack the UP mystery this time.

The New Voter Will be Decisive in UP Elections

Courtesy: Forbes India

The heat and dust has settled in much of Uttar Pradesh as the state elections, billed as a political game changer for India, enters the final slog overs. The equations have remained largely unchanged from the beginning and most parties have been cautious in criticizing one another as most believe that the state is headed towards a hung assembly and power would have to be shared to be enjoyed.

Mayawati anyway never enters into a pre-poll alliance as she has an absolutely loyal vote bank. Indian Express editor Shekhar Gupta wrote that during five days of travel in UP, he or his colleagues did not come across a single dalit who would vote for anyone but the Bahujan Samaj Party. As everyone knew right from the beginning the fight for the top slot is between Mayawati and Mulayam Singh. The Congress and BJP are fighting for the last two positions.

High voter turnout has made forecasting even trickier. A little under 60 per cent of voters have voted this time compared to a little over 46 per cent five years ago. That is a jump of nearly 14 percentage points in a state where a 30 per cent vote share means victory. In the last Lok Sabha elections when the Congress won 21 seats, its vote share was just 18 per cent.

No one has any idea who the new voters are rooting for. By new voters I mean not only first time voters, who may be swayed by the relatively young age and modern rhetoric of Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, but also those who were registered but stayed away from the box in previous elections.

Typically, it is the cynical voter who skips the tread to the booth. Usually, they are also educated, upwardly mobile and if I were to hazard a guess, upper caste whose relative preference always seems to be argument than action. The upper caste voters are disillusioned with Mayawati this time, and do not vote for Mulayam anyways. A few days before the elections when I travelled to the state, they were gripped by a frustrating indecision as BJP, their party of choice, was making a complete hash of their chances. The few who had placed their faith in Mayawati in 2007 were already disillusioned and the only thing they had decided was they would not vote BSP. Judging by the turnout, they may have come back to vote and most likely cast their lot with the the Congress or BJP.

The voting percentage has also been boosted by the huge number of women lining up at polling booths – 60 per cent compared with 57 per cent men. Women tend to have a longer memory than men and I would imagine that their memories of the Samajwadi Party’s reign are not exactly pleasant. Dalit men and women vote in full strength anyway. So it is unlikely that their numbers have added to the voter turnout by much though their presence at Mayawati’s rallies had swelled considerably. If it is OBC and upper caste women who have stepped out of their homes on election day, they are more likely to have voted for the SP and the two national parties. If the BJP leadership’s lacklustre campaigning – national leaders were mostly conspicuous by their absence – is any indication, it seems to have already resigned itself to playing an insignificant role once the results are out.

Since the Bahujan Samajwadi Party already suffers from the incumbency factor and its voters turn out in strength irrespective of the importance of the election, the higher turnout is unlikely to be beneficial for Mayawati. That means the beneficiaries are most likely to be the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. It brings us to two possibilities – as we suggested in Forbes India‘s assessment before the elections began, the SP in a position to form the government with Congress support or, as coal minister and Congress leader Sriprakash Jaiswal controversially said, if the Congress so desires, President’s rule.

Cong-RLD hopes rise with high turnout in Jatland

Courtesy: Hindustan Times

Jatland witnessed a nearly 14% jump in voting on Tuesday, as the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh entered its last and most crucial phase.

With 68 seats, western UP represents the largest chunk of the assembly and a victory there is vital for all parties.

So when 60.08% voters hit the booths across 13 districts — compared to 2007’s 46.58% turnout — the RLD and the Congress cheered. 

With the obvious cracks in Mayawati’s “sarvjan samaj” coalition, the combine stands to gain massively.

Back in 2007, this Muslim-Jat dominated area had given the BSP 35 seats — in comparison to 10 for RLD and just 2 for the Congress. 

But this time, a change in public mood is evident, especially among the Jats, who comprise 18% of the population and Thakurs and Brahmins, who together comprise 20%.

The fact that Muslims comprise 25% of the votebank, gives the SP a reason to hope as well, even though in 2007, the party had won just three seats.

UPCC spokesman Dwijendra Tripathi claimed the alliance would bag most of the seats —  each party contested 34. RLD general secretary Anil Dubey said the figure reflected the first-time voters — who have turned out in strength to vote for Jayant Chaudhury and Rahul Gandhi.  

The most telling figure, however, comes from Saharanpur — 64.86% as against 59.78% in 2007, which is also the highest in this round of polls.

The new constituency, which includes most of Mayawati’s erstwhile constituency Haroa, should have been a cakewalk for BSP. But the RLD-Congress led by Qazi Rashid Masood and SP candidate Gujar leader Chaudhury Yashpal are expected to provide tough battle.

Another keen fight will be in Mant (Mathura) where RLD’s Jayant Chaudhury is contesting against Trinamool Congress candidate Shyam Sunder Sharma. The turnout there was 63.8%.

SP confident, Maya grumbles, rest stunned as sixth phase scores massive turnout

Courtesy: Tehelka

A record 65 percent voters cast their ballot turnout across 68 Assembly constituencies in 13 districts in western UP. Ghaziabad and Saharanpur record as 66 percent

The sixth phase of Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls that went to vote on Tuesday 28 February, witnessed a massive voter turnout in the Western UP districts. Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav exuded confidence to the extent of claiming that the people of the state have accepted his party as the only alternative to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The sixth phase of the Assembly polls covered 68 seats spread in 13 districts.

The results of this phase are crucial for both SP and BSP, as it can alter the political prospects of both. The ruling BSP faces a challenging task of retaining 35 seats it had won in these areas in 2007 Assembly elections. The Congress–RLD alliance and a resurgent BJP have polarized votes and made the task difficult for BSP. High voter turnout estimated to be 65 percent has added to the hopes of the Opposition parties while the ruling BSP is keeping its fingers crossed.

“With the end of the sixth phase of polling let there be no doubt that the Samajwadi party is going to form the next government in UP. The SP will not tolerate goonda gardi. Any party worker found on the wrong side of the law will be shown the door and will be sent to jail”, said SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav after returning to Lucknow after a day-long campaign in Badaun, Bareilly and Rampur. 

On the other hand, UP chief minister Mayawati is getting angrier in her election speeches with each passing phase of Assembly polls. At election meetings at Bareilly and Pilibhit, on Tuesday, she raised the issue of Dalit pride cautioning her voters to be wary of the “misinformation campaign”. She said the SP was making false claims that it is emerging as the single largest party. “A misinformation campaign is being run to confuse the BSP supporters and divide the Muslim voters,” said Mayawati asking the minorities to close their ranks and support BSP.

Urging Muslims to beware of the designs of the opposition parties Mayawati warned her voters that all the opposition parties—SP, Congress and BJP— had “joined hands” to prevent the BSP from coming back to power in UP. “Congress, BJP and SP are out to mislead and confuse the voters by their antics and gimmicks”, said Mayawati.

Urging Dalits to vote in large numbers Mayawati said, “Sit up and be counted, Dalits should ensure that each vote is cast. It is their additional responsibility to ensure that the upper caste also votes for BSP”.

In the sixth phase of the Assembly polls where 68 Assembly constituencies in 13 districts from Aligarh to Saharanpur went to polls, polling percentage is estimated to be as high as 65 percent. The voter’s turnout in the sixth phase is estimated to be the highest recorded so far. Meerut, saw 65 percent voters turnout, while Ghaziabad witnessed a 66 percent turnout of voters. In Saharanpur district the voter’s turnout broke all previous records as 66 percent of the voters cast their votes.

UP: Congress creates own rainbow to counter caste blocks

Courtesy: Indian Express

The Congress has attempted a different kind of social engineering in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh in a bid to beat Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav in their own game. In a bid to widen its base in the caste-ridden politics of the state, where it has been out of power for last two decades, the party has reached out to marginalised sections among the same castes and communities, which these leaders broadly represent.

The party has attempted to dent the watertight caste compartments of UP politics by reaching out to sub castes within Yadavs and Rajputs as well. The party is confident that it will win all three seats in Mainpuri, where Yadavs are in sizeable numbers. It has fielded a former Samajwadi Party candidate who had lost the last election by a margin or around two thousands votes.

It is also trying to work upon the wedge between Ghoshi and Kamaria, two powerful groups within Yadavs. Mulayam Singh Yadav belongs to Kamaria Yadavs, while Congress has this time fielded a large number of candidates from Ghoshi Yadavs. Urmila Yadav from Karnal is a Ghoshi Yadav. Among the Rajputs, Raghavs are considered less politically represented in UP. The Congress has focused on them. The party has fielded Rashmi Rajput from Bhongaon Constituency in Western UP, where BJP stalwart Sakshi Maharaj is contesting and is confident of winning the seat.

As Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh move into Jatlands of the western parts of the state, the party is also hopeful that its alliance with Ajit Singh and the sub quota politics will fetch it rich dividends in this once BSP dominated area. 68 seats in Western UP went to polls today.

“Where there is a direct contest between BSP and Congress, we will win,” says senior party leader Mohan Prakash, who believes that Samajwadi Party is not such a force here like in other parts of the state.

“In Western UP, Congress-RLD alliance is in direct fight with BSP in 35 seats. We are hopeful of winning these seats,” a leader said.

As the Jats will play a major role in deciding results, the Congress is likely to highlight steps taken for reservation of the community in various other states. As elections inch towards their last leg in next few days, senior Congress leaders, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the party is hopeful that its strategy to rope in the extremely backward castes from among the OBCs and Ati Dalits from among the Jatav dominated Scheduled Caste category will pay off.

It is pinning high hopes on intermediary backward castes like Kurmis, Kushwahas, Badhais (carpenters), Dobhis (washermen), and non Jatav Dalits like Kori, Khatik, Paasi. After Jatavs, Koris and Paasis are largest chunks of the Schedules Castes in UP. The Congress, in particular, has given a number of seats to Paasis.

Under the Mission 85, the Congress formed a special team to ensure party's better performance in all the 85 reserved seats in Uttar Pradesh as well as in four other seats, where the party has fielded four more candidates from the Scheduled Castes.

The party is expecting a rise in its vote share among the Scheduled Castes after Rahul's visit to Dalit homes, which also invited sharp criticism from the Opposition specially the BSP, which has been dubbing it as a “gimmick”.

In an attempt to consolidate the anti-BSP voters in the Jatlands, the party is also trying to project BJP, SP and BSP as 'birds of the same feather who flock together'.

“The state has seen coalition government between BSP and BJP, between SP and BSP and also some sort of friendly arrangement between SP and BJP in which Mulayam Singh Yadav was chief minister and BJP had its Speaker in Kesrinath Tripathi,” Prakash said.

Insisting that “the Congress will not participate in this politics of opportunism”, Prakash rules out any kind of tie-up with all the three parties even in the face of the elections giving a hung verdict.

“BSP, BJP and SP are in consensus on looting Uttar Pradesh. These parties have come together in past and can join hands in future also. That is why all the three are attacking Congress even though we are not in power in UP for last two decades,” he said.

Asked whether it is not the responsibility of a national party like Congress to give stability to UP politics and help form a coalition government in case there is a hung Assembly, the Congress leader said the party has gone to poll with a promise of providing a clean, efficient Congress government.

“That is why we are seeking votes. We have already sewed an alliance with the party we had to. It is for the people to give us the responsibility. When they give us responsibility, we will discharge it,” Prakash said.

Sources said a view is gaining ground in the party that hitching its wagon either to the SP or BSP will give the impression that it is their B team, which will kill its prospects of thorough revival in the Hindi heartland even in the long run.

UP Polls: 60.1 pc turnout in 6th phase

This was the phase with the largest amount of seats - 68 to be precise. Todate, this is the largest voter turnout in UP - above 60%. This is the phase where the Congress was expecting maximum seat gains due to their tieup with the RLD. The Congress should feel elated at this turnout.

Courtesy: Deccan Herald

Over 60 per cent voters today exercised their franchise in the sixth and penultimate phase of Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections for 68 seats spread over 13 districts of the western Jat belt of the state, where the Congress-RLD combine faces a litmus test.

While voting was by and large peaceful, election officials in Delhi and Lucknow said "barring minor incidents, polling process was peacefully over at 5 PM."

"A total of 60.1 per cent voters out of an electorate of 2.15 crore cast their vote in the sixth phase of polling till 5 PM," UP Chief Electoral Officer Umesh Sinha said in Lucknow.

In Delhi, an election official said, "The turnout shows an increase of around 29 per cent as compared to the previous assembly polls in 2007."

The last assembly polls in these districts had recorded a turnout of 46.58 per cent.

In the sixth phase of polling, Saharanpur district recorded a maximum turnout of 64.7 per cent followed by Mathura district which recorded a polling percentage of 63.3 per cent, Deputy Election Commissioner Vinod Zutshi said.

The fate of 1,103 candidates, including 86 women, will be decided in today's polls.

Voters in village Hussain Malikpur under Behat assembly constituency in Saharanpur district boycotted the poll and no vote was polled at polling booth number 106, Zutshi said, adding that the villagers were protesting against inadequate drainage of water in the area. 

Zutshi said there was one case of possible repoll due to irregularities in the use of electronic voting machines in Ghaziabad. This was in Polling Station 67 at SR Public School in Ghaziabad where poll officials included the mock poll votes in the total votes polled. "This calls for a possible repoll after scrutiny," he said.

Police used mild force to disperse a local BSP leader and his supporters who created a ruckus at a polling centre at Singhani gate area in Ghaziabad on the outskirts of Delhi. They were protesting against the absence of booth level officers to distribute voter slips.

Similarly, in Agra, people were agitated over alleged irregularities at a centre at Ahmadia Hameedia college in Mantola.

In Bhatta Parsaul, which was the centre of the land acquisition row, farmers were seen in large numbers coming out to vote. Their leader Manvir Singh Tevatia, who had spearheaded the farmers' agitation, is fighting elections from jail. The area falls under the Jewar Assembly seat.

Congress has fielded Dhirendra Singh from Jewar. He was the man on whose bike Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi had reached Bhatta Parsaul last year.

In Chief Minister Mayawati's native Badalpur village, farmers had lined up to cast their vote even before the polling began. BSP fielded Satvir Gujjar, the sitting MLA, wwho is piited against Samir Bhatti of Congress.

Bhatti had once served as MLA from Dadri and his father Mahinder Singh Bhatti represented the seat twice. BJP has fielded Nawab Singh Nagar, who was twice elected MLA from the seat. Samajwadi Party has fielded Raj Kumar Bha

Party split over Sanjay Joshi, admits Arun Jaitley

Courtesy: Times of India

NEW DELHI: For the first since Sanjay Joshi was reinstated into BJP's organizational set-up by Nitin Gadkari, a senior leader has admitted that there were serious differences within the party on the decision.

In an interview to a national TV channel, leader of opposition Arun Jaitley acknowledged that there were differences of opinion over Gadkari's decision to make Joshi in-charge of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections given that Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi did not turn up to campaign in UP, even as Gadkari was keen that he did. 

"There could be differences of opinion on what responsibility should be given to a person. But this has got nothing to do with Modi not campaigning in UP elections," Jaitley said when asked whether Modi's decision to boycott the UP campaign stemmed from his anger with Gadkari over Joshi's appointment. Jaitley denied that Modi was upset with Gadkari about Joshi and hence did not campaign.

Modi has been at loggerheads with Gadkari over the appointment of Joshi and his camp maintains that this is the reason why he didn't campaign for the BJP in UP. 

Admitting that Gadkari wanted Modi to campaign in UP and that "president has the last word in our party", Jaitley said, "As CM, Modi has serious responsibility because elections are due in Gujarat in December this year. He is busy in preparing for elections. That might be the reason why he could not come to UP for campaigning." 

He said the Joshi issue should not be linked to elections. "There could be many such issues on which there are two voices in the party. But as far as elections are concerned, there is no difference of opinion," he said. 

Sanjay Joshi was ousted from the party following a CD of him purportedly with a woman surfaced in December 2005 during the party's national executive in Mumbai. Joshi used to be the all-powerful general secretary (organization) in BJP's central team of office-bearers. 

He was also the link between RSS and BJP. Even as the RSS tried to get him back into the BJP, the party resisted it till Gadkari took over the reigns from rajnath Singh. Gadkari, who hails from Nagpur and is seen to be a Sangh favourite, finally obliged the Sangh by not just taking him back into the BJP but by putting him in charge of UP polls. 

Modi has been seen as opposed to Joshi and he was upset with Gadkari for rehabilitating him. In fact, even senior party leader L K Advani differed with Gadkari's decision to install Joshi as in-charge of UP polls and was almost on the verge of calling off his countrywide yatra against corruption over the issue. But whether the issue has subsided will only be clear after the assembly election results on March 6.

UP: Say goodbye to elephant, cycle, says Rahul

Courtesy: Indian Express

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi today appealed to the voters to give his party just five years to change the face of Uttar Pradesh and bid goodbye to the 'elephant' and the 'cycle'. 

"People will find a change in five years and in next ten years, people will not be able to recognise their state," he said at an election meeting in Bulandshahr district. 

Insisting that he has not come to win elections but to change Uttar Pradesh, the Congress leader said, "Unless UP changes, Rahul Gandhi will not move from here." 

"To bring about a change, it is necessary for the youth to come forward because they are the ones who can usher in a change. This is the time for change - so say goodbye to the 'elephant' and the 'cycle' and bring in a Congress government," he said. 

While 'elephant' is the symbol of ruling BSP, 'cycle' is that of SP. 

Rahul said leaders in UP make tall promises and disappear when the time comes to implement them. 

He said that in 2004, Congress had promised a government for the common man and launched MNREGA that promises 100 days of employment. 

To see the success of this scheme, one should visit Congress-ruled states like Haryana, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. 

He said the Congress gave a loan waiver scheme to farmers and reopened the doors of banks for them. For the weavers, the Centre gave loans up to Rs two lakhs and a weaver's credit card. 

Rahul said the Congress was now preparing to give the right to food under which every poor family would get 35 kg of foodgrains a month and no one in the country would go hungry.

Shame! Congress open to accept corrupt Yeddyurappa

                              Courtesy: ZeeNews

Hubli (Ktk): Congress is prepared to accept former Karnataka Chief Minister and BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa into the party, but only after "careful examination" of the details provided by him, Labour Minister Mallikarjun Kharge on Sunday said.

"If Yeddyurappa desires to join the Congress, he will be admitted only after a careful examination of the details provided by him," Kharge told reporters here.

The relationship between Yeddyurappa and the BJP Central leadership is strained after party president Nitin Gadkari rebuffed the veteran leader's bid to regain the chief ministership.

A defiant Yeddyurappa, who had to step down as chief minister after being indicted in the Lokayukta report into illegal mining, had said yesterday that he and his followers would not attend a meeting convened by Gadkari in New Delhi on March 3.

Speculation is rife that the disgruntled Yeddyurappa will leave BJP and float a new party or join another party.

Kharge also said his party was ready to face early elections, but would not topple the BJP-ruled government in Karnataka as it would "fall on its own" due to internal strife.

"The Congress is prepared for any early election, but does not intend to topple or destabilise the BJP government as it would fall on its own due to internal party bickerings," he said. If the government falls, Congress would not be surprised, Kharge added.

"Chief Minister D V Sadananda Gowda should resign as he had no control over the government and is helpless," he said.

Accusing the BJP of practising "double standards", Kharge said the party was hitting out against corruption at the Centre but was supporting it in the state.

Meanwhile, Corporate Affairs Minister Veerappa Moily told reporters in Mangalore that the state was facing a political crisis and asked the BJP to dissolve the Assembly to restore dignity.

A tiny dip in vote share can make a huge dent

While I agree with most of the analysis of this article, I have a few disagreements. The first, is while the article assumes a waveless election, I am quite certain this is a wave election. During the last Tamilnadu elections, media similarly asked where was the wave only to discover the huge Jaya tidal wave on counting day.

Secondly, I disagree with the assessment "Another important point is that the rise in vote share would convert into seats only when the percentage increase is spread across the state." In my opinion, this only applies to the SP. This is the reason why the Congress and to a more limited extent the BJP will gain seats disproportionately to its vote share, because these votes are concentrated in a clutchful of constituencies. We have the ready example of the BJP capturing power in Karnataka on the basis of skewed vote share distribution.

Courtesy: Times of India

LUCKNOW: The high polling percentage in the first five phases of the UP elections has been puzzling but a close look at the voting pattern and the crowd in the public meetings of major political parties indicates that the fight for the ballot is tough and a swing of only 3-4 percentage points in vote share could tilt the balance in over 100 seats.

Sample this: in the 2007 assembly elections, BSP fought 403 seats, won 206 with vote share 30.43%. SP (in alliance with RLD) contested 393 seats, won 97 with 25.43% vote share and BJP fought 350 seats, won 51 with a 16.97% vote share. Also, in 2007, the winning margin in 149 out of total 402 seats was less than 5000, or a difference of just 3-4% between the winner and the runner-up. Of these 149 seats, BSP won 64, SP 68, BJP 20, Congress six and RLD three. This shows that a drop in BSP's vote share could mean a loss of around 50-60 seats and a swing in favour of SP can help the party win 50-60 more seats.

In case a drop in BSP's vote share gets divided between SP, Congress and BJP, all the opposition parties will gain. However, past election trends also show that votes convert into seats generally when a candidate gets 25% or more vote share. A difference of 3-4 percentage points in votes can make a huge difference as it was seen in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls when BSP contested 80 seats in UP but won 20 with a vote share of 27.42%. The assembly segment-wise break up of Lok Sabha results show that BSP was ahead in only 100 segments, a drop of 3 percentage points (30.43% in 2007 to 27.42% in 2009), brought BSP's number down from 206 to 100.

However, the tricky situation this time is that vote share of all major players is expected to go up because of the increased turnout. In such a situation, the difference between the increase in vote share will decide the fate. Another important point is that the rise in vote share would convert into seats only when the percentage increase is spread across the state. In case, a party gets mote votes but it is confined to some pockets, on paper the overall vote share would rise but may not translate into a proportionate increase in seats. For example, BSP's vote share in 2009 was the highest among major parties but it got fewer seats.

In the 2007 assembly elections, the turnout was 45.94% and in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections it was 47.45%. This time, so far in the five phases, the polling percentage has been 59.55% (average of the five). If such a trend continues, polling would cross the 57.13% recorded in 1993, the highest UP recorded since independence. The factors responsible for high turnout include awareness, fewer anomalies in the voters' list, an increase in voting by women and youth, major political parties ensuring maximum turnout of their supporters and strong anti-incumbency sentiments against the state and central governments and local MPs and MLAs.

One of the highlights of the first five phases is that more women than men have turned out to vote. The polling percentage of women is 59.92% compared with 59.07% for men. Of the total 48 reserved constituencies which went to polls so far, in 27, the vote share of women is higher than men. Similarly, in the Muslim dominated 60 seats, polling by women was higher in 26 constituencies. The reserved and Muslim dominated constituencies are mostly in rural areas and are backward. According to political pundits, high polling of women in backward areas is a good news for BSP because they do not want the 'insecure' SP to come back.

On the other hand, high turnout of women in urban areas should be good news for BJP because a similar trend was seen when the Ram Temple movement was at its peak in the late 80s and early 90s. However, this time, the turnout by urban men has also been high. The participation of youth was also huge. This would be a good sign for the two national parties -- BJP and Congress -- because SP and BSP are largely dependent on the rural base. However, things may change a bit with SP state president Akhilesh Yadav being able to connect with the urban youth. He got over 58,000 hits recently during an online chat on Facebook.

The Congress is expecting gains from the Muslim quota but the trend so far shows that Mulayam Singh Yadav is still popular among Muslims. Further, so far 48 reserved constituencies have gone to the polls. Polling in 15 reserved seats has been over 60%. This indicates that not only Dalits but other communities have voted in large numbers. Dalits are Mayawati's core vote bank. But in reserved seats all parties field Dalit candidates, leading to a split in Dalit votes. The parties securing votes of other communities mostly win in Dalit seats. Experts believe that strong anti-incumbency may dent Mayawati in Dalit seats.

In UP, the popular saying is that winning elections is about creating a wave. For example, BJP won 1991 state assembly elections on the Ram Temple wave. In 1993, SP and BSP shook hands and created a wave in their favour. At times, an anti-wave can also help like in 2007 when BSP came to power due to strong anti-incumbency against the SP rule. However, experts point out that in the absence of a wave, results depend on candidates creating a wind in their favour to sway floating votes. Such a situation results in hung assembly. This time again, the ground reports suggest that people are preferring candidates over parties.

Voteswagon: Voter turnout in assembly elections is on a rise

Courtesy: Times of India

Every election in India busts some cliches . As Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand , Punjab and Manipur record high voter turnouts in Election 2012, poll pundits - used to set patterns like ''anti-incumbency factor'' and ''caste calculations'' - are struggling to make sense of this surge. They are busy guessing the outcome of the elections, though the real story lies in the polling booths and their long queues.

But 2012 is not an exception; voter turnout in assembly elections has been on the rise in recent years. In 2011, too, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry had witnessed a record turnout. In 2010, Bihar stunned everyone with a jump of 9% in turnout compared to the 2009 general elections. 

So what does this sharp rise in the number of votes cast, especially in states like UP, really mean - for the political parties, their representatives, individual voters and the country? Why is the Indian voter showing faith in elections at a time when there is an anti-politician mood across the world, particularly in the West. Some see it as a triumph of democracy.

''Irrespective of the results, in spite of the supposed cynicism and disenchantment, the high voter turnout is first and foremost a vote for democracy. Secondly, it teaches us the lesson that the true vote of confidence in democracy exists not in the drawing-room chatterati but in the aam aadmi and the average citizens who take the trouble to physically express their faith in democracy,'' says Congress spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi.

Only a few months ago, when the nation was in the grip of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement, the entire political class and the system run by it looked discredited. But now, with long serpentine queues at polling booths, the politicians are back in business. ''The people know that they can change any government and unseat any leader through the power of the ballot . Let us be very clear. India will be governed by political parties and elections. There will be no military coup or, after Indira Gandhi's experience, Emergency,'' says BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad. 

But that doesn't mean that people have blind faith in the political class or are not voting for caste or community. ''There is a need to elect leaders who are not only genuine but could also deliver the goods by giving corruption-free governance at a time when everyone is upset over issues like price rise and irregularities,'' says Nidhi Sharma, a 21-year-old student in Roorkee who voted for the first time in the Uttarakhand polls that registered 67.22% turnout. Even in far-flung hill constituencies like Yamunotri and Gangotri - it'd have been freezing over there - more than 70% voters cast their ballot.

No political party in India, though, has a patent over corruption. All of them have a blemished record. So the Indian voter, too, has learnt the art of cutting a good deal for himself in what is largely a bad bargain. ''Caste may be the dominant concern for most voters, but I am voting for development. The party, or candidate, that can give me better educational facilities in my constituency is the one I will vote for,'' says Shoaib, a college student in Lucknow. 

Ironically, in the state known as the cradle of Indian politics, voting percentages have always remained lower as compared to other states. But this time, UP, too, is following the trend of higher voting, with the number of women voters in the first four phases of elections crossing the 60% mark. Many, including politicians, credit the Election Commission for this change. ''The EC's awareness drive has contributed in a big way to more voters exercising their franchise this year. People are beginning to understand that their vote counts. They are, therefore, coming out to vote for stability and safety,'' says Nakul Dubey, minister for urban development in UP. 

Till the early 1990s, many voters stayed away from polling booths as they feared violence and rigging on polling day. Now, with the EC becoming proactive, even cynical voters are coming out. In Punjab, the EC's strict monitoring of liquor and money flow, and delivery of voter slips at homes, gave confidence to first-time voters to queue up at the polling stations.

 ‘‘Earlier, I was not interested. But after looking at the EC's performance, I changed my mind and decided to vote,'' says Sonia Sharma, a Punjabi University student at Patiala. Though there are no numbers to back them, many political observers believe the surge in turnout is due to young and first-time voters exercising their rights. Across the country, aspirations are changing. The young want education and jobs, and that's what the political parties are offering them, making all party manifestos look similar. 

''Young voters and women have become more aware about the issues. The increased voter percentage is an indication of this trend,'' says Anand Bhadauria, president of Samajwadi Party's youth wing. But an assembly election is not all about aspirations, it's also about access to the system . During the 2007 elections in Manipur, 84.83% cast their vote. Compare this with the Lok Sabha elections of 2009 in which the state recorded just 67.86% votes.

 In small states which send a few MPs to Parliament , MLAs become more important as they deal directly with the people. ''Voters here do not consider MLAs as lawmakers, they consider them as someone who can help them in their daily lives - be it for jobs, benefits or development of their village or locality. This makes elections personalized and people want to ensure their candidate wins,'' says Dhanabir Laishram, a social scientist in Imphal. Personalized or not, a higher turnout may not necessarily mean a new trend. Experts have often warned against reading too much in voting percentages. 

In an article, ‘Myths about Indian election’, just before the 2009 elections, psephologist Yogendra Yadav argued that there is little link between high turnout and anti-incumbency vote. ''High turnout can be a function of many different things - a spontaneous outpouring of the voters, of intensity of political competition, of greater mobilisation and resources put in by political parties or of greater interest on the part of the voter,'' he argued. What really drove the Indian voter in 2012 will only be known on March 6 when the results are declared. But right now everybody is happy with the triumph of electoral democracy.