Kerala Left Still Hopeful of Winning: Sees a VS Factor in Voter Turnout Pattern

 

Voter turnout and their effects in deciding electoral outcomes has been a subject of much psephological research all over the world. In the US , a very recently published study used an instrumental variables approach to re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses— standard explanations for how turnout affects partisan outcomes. They also provided an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbency Hypothesis and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which argues that high turnout produces electoral consequences that are systematically less predictable. Using county-level data from the 1948-2000 U.S. presidential elections, they concluded that support for each of these hypotheses and that previous research may have underestimated the magnitude and range of implications of variation in voter turnout. 

The recent record voter turnouts in the assembly elections in 4 states and 1 union territory in the country have re-kindled this debate. In Kerala Left sympathizers have come up with the theory of the VS factor is real and  in play through analysis of voting pattern distribution and concluded that it can change the outcome in the favour of the Left. This theory was brought to my notice today by one of the readers of this blog who goes by the name of BT, who provided some useful and interesting links. 

So what's the VS Factor? 

Plagued by back-to-back defeats starting from the Lok Sabha 2009, to the more recent local body elections, the Kerala Left, just as their West Bengal comrades were a highly demoralized lot. A spate of developments to the run up to the elections however brought them out of coma, and suddenly invigorated them to instill the Left campaign a sudden  spirit of hopefulness and liveliness that surprised both political commenters and their opponents alike. 

It all started with a sex scandal which has been dismissed by the courts but brought back to life when the brother-in-law of the accused, a member of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a constituent of the UDF spilled the beans that he bribed a judge to get a favourable verdict for the accused. The Left government then succeeded in expanding the list of accused in the Palmolein Import case to include Oommen Chandy, the Congress Chief Minister candidate if they win. Then Kerala Congress (B) Mr. Balakrishna Pillai was convicted by the SC for 1-year rigorous imprisonment in the Edamalayar graft case for the loss caused to the state exchequer as electricity minister. 

In all these developments, the VS (Achuthanandan - CM of Kerala) hand had played a big role while coming at a time the UPA government  was facing flak for being corrupt; created all the right ingredients for VS to emerge with an image as a crusader against corruption.  Additionally, his image really got a big boost, when he emerged a martyr when his party's central leadership wanted to deprive him of a party ticket but were forced to retract their decision, bowing to pressures from the party's rank and file in Kerala. His elevated personal stature plus his oratory skills billed him the biggest draw of the elections, even relegating Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to second best. This almost surreal image was billed by the Left as the VS Factor whose steam they expected to float back to their second stint of power. VS portraits adorned the LDF campaign material, in contrast to the images Marx , Lenin and Che in the past. 

If the Left is pinning all their hope on their Chief Minister candidate, they only need to revert back to the NDA Lok Sabha experience of 2005 to find out that this is no magic formula. Vajpayee, the then BJP and NDA candidate for prime minister commanded popularity which no other individual could match, and yet the BJP and the NDA he led, trailed far below this level of popularity, to be ultimately voted out.  Vajpayee was dismissed by the electorate as the right man in the wrong party. Similar could be VS Achuthanandan’s plight. Back-to-back electoral defeats from the Lok Sabha elections of 2009 to the local body polls a few months ago seems to suggest that the misrule of the Left had indeed caused great dissatisfaction among the people which when combined with the Kerala tradition of voting out the incumbent government suggests that the Left’s hope of piggybacking on the VS factor could well be a pipe dream. But this apparently has not stopped them from dreaming.

Analysis of voting pattern distribution (see table at the end of this post) threw up a discernible trend. In the Left bastions (Kunnamangalam, Nilamboor, Perinthalmanna, Paravoor, Chavara, Irinjalakkuda, Perumbavoor etc), voter turnout tended to be not only higher than 2006 Assembly elections but the incremental was higher than the winning margin e.g. Puttukad where the winning margin in 2006 was 1,349 while the incremental voter turnout in 2011 was 16,689. Whereas in the the UDF bastions (Idukki, Kottayam, Wayanad, Malappuram, Nilamboor, Perinthalmanna etc) it was the reverse e.g. Malappuram where the winning margin was 23,875, voter turnout in 2011 was considerably less than 2006.

So how do the two alliances interpret this peculiar voting pattern distribution?

The Left’s internal assessment after  calculations made by the mandalam, booth, block and district committees, estimate a seat share of 75-78 seats, most of which concentrated within the six districts in Malabar, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram districts in the south.  Their rationale is that lower turnout in UDF bastions strengthen their winning chances while they do not have any logical explanation how the higher turnout will benefit them in their own strongholds.

The UDF’s internal assessment similarly made after calculations made by the mandalam, booth, block and district committees, estimate 94 seats as a realistic projection; 80 seats under their worst case  scenario and over 100 seats as their best case scenario. Their rationale is best summed up by their MP and former union minister, Shashi Tharoor:

“The mood is pretty upbeat. We in the UDF are expecting a victory. Of course, we will have to wait for a month to find out. The higher the turnout the better it is for the UDF because the organizations of a communist will always come in a certain number, it is when the general non-committed, non ideological voter as we tend to win. That will be shown up in higher turn.”

So, it's the anti-incumbency factor that leads to the increase in the polling percentage. according to the UDF. What about the lower turnout affecting their bastions?  The UDF here resorts to conventional wisdom - there is a wave in their favour and a section of LDF supporters have been so demoralized that they preferred staying home than vote.

So what indications we have that this could turn out true. The IUML is perhaps the most ecstatic of all UDF partners, that they will replace Kerala Congress (M) as the second largest constituent of the UDF. The party was hopeful of winning all the 12 seats it contested in Malappuram district. “It will not be a surprise if the UDF wins all the 16 seats in Malappuram,” said K.N.A. Khader, party State secretary. According to the IUML, the low voter turnout in Vengara and Tirurangadi constituencies indicated the languid state of affairs within the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the district. “The LDF has been insipid in those constituencies,” Mr. Kunhalikutty said.

When Malappuram district registered 74.25 per cent voter turnout, the polling percentage in Vengara and Tirurangadi was 68.87 and 65.53 respectively. Tirurangadi polled the lowest number of votes followed by Vengara.

The IndiaToday post poll tend to corroborate IUML public face of ecstasy - their findings state that the Muslim vote consolidated around the UDF en bloc. If IndiaToday’s post poll holds true, then Left’s hope of piggybacking on the Jama -at e Islami, an Islamic extreme outfit’s support to 127 constituencies has come to naught.

The Central Intelligence Bureau (IB) report in the meanwhile predicted that the UDF would be getting anywhere between 80 and 85 seats and the LDF would get anywhere between 55 and 60. This report has predicted that the difference between the Fronts will be only within 20 seats.  

To have a neutral opinion I emailed a close friend who is a well known journalist from Kerala. I asked him what he made out of this peculiar voter turnout distribution. Back came his speedy reply. 

“Partly, this is accounted by the Lotus blooming as indicated by the Asianet opinion polls. I suspect the Left would have resorted to mass rigging - sending cadres from UDF bastions to boost their vote shares in their own bastions. Otherwise would they be confident of getting 78 seats?. This may sound as fiction but we can validate this perception by simply checking whether UDF victory margin increased, despite lower voter turnout”

There we have it - alternative opinions. Should the VS factor exist, the Left may pull off a shock victory or failing that, reduce their margin of defeat significantly. If it doesn’t exist, then the UDF is poised to register a landslide victory. Both ways, opinion, exit and post polls maybe proved wrong. And won’t that be fun?

  Courtesy: www.forumkeralam.com

A Critique of IndiaToday’s Post-Poll Surveys of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam

Publication of exit-polls is banned till May 10^th 5 pm by the Election Commission (EC). But the EC notification did not mention anything about post-polls. IndiaToday was the first media group to circumvent the EC’s exit-poll ban by publishing a post-poll survey last night.

So what’s the difference between all these polls?

Pre-poll or an Opinion Poll is a survey conducted before the actual voting designed to understand voter intentions. Their major limitations are that intentions might change during and/or because of the campaign; and secondly, all eligible voters do not come to vote.

Post-poll on the other hand is an estimate who they voted for. There are basically two kinds of such surveys - exit polls and post polls. Though both polls give an indication on the pattern of actual exercise of voter choice, the essential difference between them is that while exit polls are undertaken on polling day, usually immediately after voters have voted, post poll are undertaken 1-2 days later. From a sampling perspective, a post poll is considered more accurate than an exit poll because while the later is self-selecting, the former, like pre-poll, we have better control over the sampling.

 

The IndiaToday post-poll surveys have a margin error of +3%, which means if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the 95% confidence interval of the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using a larger sample i.e. if margin error is to be reduced to  + 1% a sample of at least 10,000 people is required whereas IndiaToday’s sample base was around 6,000 or less, depending on the three states it covered viz. Tamil Nadu; Assam and Kerala.

However sample size by itself is inadequate to get exit or post polls right; we need to get the sample profiles right too!

TAMIL NADU

 

IndiaToday’s post-poll indicates almost a dead heat, though the DMK alliance commands a marginal edge. The fact that the DMK alliance increased its vote share viz-a-viz both the 2006 Assembly and 2009 Lok Sabha does appear to suggest it commanded a pro-incumbency vote. However, if the survey’s + 3% margin error is factored, all outcome scenarios are still possible between these following two extremes and it would be too premature on the part of DMK supporter’s to open the champagne bottles:

 

As compared to 2006 Assembly performances , both alliances gain in vote share at the cost of ‘Others’, minor parties many of whom in 2011 have decided to align themselves to one of the two major alliances in the state. BJP’s hopes to open its account in the state according to IndiaToday’s projection appear to be dashed.

If IndiaToday’s pre-poll and post-poll projections are compared, it appears that just the shifting of 3% of votes accounts as the only difference between their two polls, though its impact on seat projections appear more pronounced as a difference.

So how does IndiaToday explain this difference?

- During the course of the campaign, rural voters decisively swung in the favour of the DMK and according to IndiaToday, this may turn out as the most decisive factor.  “During the Opinion Poll, 45 % amongst the rural voters intended voting for the DMK+. But after the elections, 50% have indicated they have voted for the DMK +, and 48 % for the AIADMK +. For years large subaltern support base formed the DMK's backbone. Its loss was seen as the party's Achilles heel. But a 5% shift in trend in rural Tamil Nadu in the last three weeks could turn this election on its head.”

- The DMK grabbed most of the young and Dalit voters, who AIADMK was expected to attract.  It follows that Vijaykant’s DMDK failed to deliver the youth vote to the AIADMK alliance and the DMK succeed in neutralizing the Vijaykant factor through deploying the Vadivelu, the popular film comedian. Through the dalit party, VCK and the possible sympathy factor arising from the arrest of ex-Telecom Minister Raja, a Dalit leader, DMK managed to carve out a base within the community, which it never had substantially.

- Though the vote margin is hardly 1%, the disproportionate seat distribution is hinted by IndiaToday as attributed to wasted votes by AIADMK, winning seats by large votes in urban areas, instead of their vote share being more evenly distributed within the state, where their surplus votes could convert many seats lost into winning ones.

- DMK’s campaign and poll machinery was more organized. The campaign itself was felt being livelier judging from the crowd response it provoked. In contrast, except for Jayalaithaa’s personal campaign, other members of the alliance proved a damp squib. 

In conclusion, the IndiaToday’s post-poll indicates it is too-close-to-call verdict. This is climb down for the media group after projecting a runaway victory for the AIADMK.

But looking at all these data, I asked myself what could be my hunch as the final outcome? All things considered, I am inclined to believe that a DMK sweep is the most probable outcome, a view which I am prepared to revise once exit poll results from other media groups are made available on May 10th. 

  

KERALA

The IndiaToday post-poll re-confirmed their pre-poll prediction of an UDF victory in Kerala on a margin of 4%.  If true, the UDF wins despite a - 1.38% swing against it viz-a-viz 2009 Lok Sabha elections, when it led in 98 assembly segments with the vote share of the Left remaining stagnant.

However, the appeal of UDF among younger voters is dropping. Of significance is the Muslim vote consolidating strongly around the UDF. This is a blow to the Muslim extreme outfit Jamaat-e-Islami who extended its support to the LDF in 124 constituencies though it supported the UDF in 15 constituencies. This when taken together with contraction of the ‘Others’ category from 21% in 2006 to just 11% projected this year, suggests that the chances of BJP opening its account in the state does not look bright. This category of ‘Others’ include minor parties and independents and also the BJP. Of particular heartburn to the Left is that they failed to cultivate the numerical strong Ezhava backward caste in the state, despite Achuthanandan, their Chief Minister belonging to this community.

So how does the IndiaToday post-poll compare with its own pre-poll and those carried out by Asianet?

We find that IndiaToday post-poll has slightly scaled back both the vote share and seat share of the UDF and more in line with the second pre-poll conducted by Asianet. This is consistent with the popular view that the Left conducted a very strong rear guard campaign with Achuthanandan ending up  the star campaigner of the entire election  drawing  crowds much larger than even Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. However, UDF supporters are less likely to attend rallies than LDF supporters though they vote as enthusiastically as their Left counterparts. 

Accepting the IndiaToday’s post-poll projections as it is, even so, a 4% vote lead should translate into at least 100 seats for the UDF. 

ASSAM

The IndiaToday post-poll projections for Assam indicate that the state is heading for a fractured verdict, with the Congress retaining its status as the single largest party. While the vote share for the Congress and the BJP remain unchanged from 2006, those of the AGP, the principal opposition party in the state and AUDF, a Muslim minority party are poised to increase by 3% each. Their gain is offset by a 6% swing away from the ‘Others’ category.

IndiaToday observed that the Congress remain favourites to form the government but have to choose between their  existing ally Bodoland People's Front (BPF) and pro-minorities outfit - AIUDF to hang on to power. And yet, the BPF finds no separate mention in their tabulation, being clubbed under ‘Others” . It also hints that with the AGP and BJP having a tacit poll understanding, this  could queer the pitch for the Congress to forming the government.

But IndiaToday fails to mention that the Congress and the BPF also had a tacit understanding and in fact allies in the outgoing government. If the vote share of AGP-BJP adds up to 35%; then those of the Congress-BPF add up to 43%. Similarly the combined seat share of AGP-BJP is projected by India-Today to be 46-53 seats, those of the Congress-BPF would be between 54-62 seats.  The fact is the BJP, AUDF and BFP command a similar vote share size viz around 12% and expected to each get around 12-14 seats.

So how does IndiaToday’s post-poll compare with their pre-poll survey? The main difference lies that the post poll scales back the vote shares of the Congress, AGP and AUDF as projected in their pre-poll survey and increased those of the ‘Others’ as much as 6%! Whether IndiaToday has botched up either or both their surveys, we would know on April 13^th.

For Assam, this blog remains confident that a Congress-BPF coalition government will take reign of the state.

 

Political parties in Assam shift focus to Post-Poll Alliance

Courtesy: The Morung Express

GUWAHAT, April 27 (NNN): Political parties in Assam are lobbying hard for the post-poll alliance with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) calculating minutely to prevent the Congress from returning to power and vice versa. Assam had gone to the two-phase polling on April 4 and 11, and the results will be declared on May 13. As per the speculations in the media most of the political parties including the ruling Congress feel the elections will yield a hung assembly. Because of this feeling, the Congress and the main opposition AGP have been hunting for partners or ' a grand alliance'.

Meanwhile, the Congress is caught between existing ally Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and pro-minorities All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). The AGP too has these two parties on its sight besides the BJP, Left and other regional players to attain the magical figure of 64 in the 126-member House.

The AGP leaders said, the mahajot (grand alliance) is to ensure the Congress cannot wield power again in Assam. But the AIUDF has no intention to be in an alliance that has BJP in it, and vice versa. “How can we join a conglomerate that has the BJP as a component?” asked AIUDF spokesman Aditya Langthasa. BJP spokesman Mission Ranjan Das underscored the ideological differences between his party and the ‘Bangladeshi-friendly’ AIUDF.

Mamata feeling the Heat: CPM allegation on use of Black Money

Fighting with its back to the wall in retaining their bastion, the CPM cornered Trinamool Congress for the use of black money by providing hard evidence to the Election Commission. That its black money campaign is working is indicated by the Trinamool Congress in turn complaining to the Election Commission that the CPM was systematically maligning them

CPM claims having 'evidence' of TMC black money
Courtesy: IBN-LIVE

Kolkata: West Bengal minister Gautam Deb on Thursday met the full bench of the Election Commission to submit "evidence" to substantiate the ruling Left's allegations that the Trinamool Congress was using black money in the ongoing assembly polls.

The housing minister and Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) leader said, "I have submitted some evidence to substantiate my allegation that TMC has used black money worth Rs 33.90 crore during the assembly polls."

Chief Election Commissioner S Y Quraishi and the other two Election Commissioners – V S Sampath and H S Brahma - were in Kolkata for a day-long visit to assess poll preparedness for the remaining three phases of the West Bengal elections.

Deb had alleged earlier this month that the opposition TMC had given Rs 15 lakh in cash to all but one of its 226 candidates. It also gave them coupons of the same amount to show that the money was collected from the public. Showing pictures of some burnt documents, he had claimed that the part of the coupons to be given to the public was burnt in the Trinamool office.

"I have already given them the damaged part of the coupon counterfoils that was purportedly issued to prove that the money was collected from public," the minister told mediapersons on Thursday.

"I have also given them details of the bank accounts of the TMC candidates mentioning how much cash was deposited in that account on some particular dates.My evidence would be enough for the Election Commission to carry out the investigation. And I have full faith that the Election Commission will look into the matter. I have said that if you seek more evidence from us, I will provide it."

Deb also told the poll panel that the TMC was using huge amounts of money for hiring helicopters for poll campaigns. He has asked the panel to inquire how much money the TMC had paid the television channels that were constantly airing its advertisements. "We will also collect information on our own," said Deb.

Deb said he was even prepared to go to the Supreme Court if the matter was not resolved in the lower courts.

Senior TMC leader Mukul Roy dismissed the allegations and said the CPM's only aim was to malign the Trinamool leadership. "They continuously indulge in making false allegations against us. We have met the Election Commission and we too have some coupons which Deb has used to collect money from the public."

Purulia Airdrop Scandal Explosion to throw a spanner in Mamata's Juggernaut?

The Purelia airdrop scandal has exploded.The Left will be hoping this is manna from heaven with their Chief Minister in Bengal Buddhadev Bhattacharya struggling to win from his constituency. On the other hand the TMC-Congress alliance will wish it is a storm in a tea cup or thankful that more than West Bengal had already voted!

 

Purulia Expose: India's best kept secret
Courtesy: Times of India

April 17 in & in the wee hours of Dec 18 1995 a mysterious weapon consignment was dropped from the sky over Joupur Jhalda area under Purulia Disctrict of West Bengal. The consignment was discovered the next morning. Until now nobody knew what really happened. Today Kim Davy the seventh man and the leader of the operation reveals everything to TIMES NOW.

TIMES NOW: My first question to you Niels Christian Nielsen, alias Kim Davy, Why are you choosing to speak out now?

Davy: I am under the danger of being extradited to India as a terrorist, I don't feel I am a terrorist, I have not done anything to harm anyone. On the contrary I have done things to protect people from Communist terror, State sponsored terror and I kept my silence in all those years, 15 years. But now political forces in India are coming out to reach at me again as they did 15 years ago and I feel its time to set the record straight.

TIMES NOW: So tell me and I will call you Kim Davy because you are known as Kim Davy across the country. Tell me who were these arms meant for? This Purulia Arms Drop, who were these arms meant for and for what purpose, who commissioned this arms drop?
Davy: The arms were meant for self-protection, it is my complete conviction that if I was tried in a Court of Law about the legality of dropping arms to protect people against State sponsored Communist terror, I would clear my name because it was legal defence against decades of murder, torture, rape by the CPIM in West Bengal. I have seen friends being butchered in front of my eyes for so many years and all I did was to work for the betterment of the rural people of West Bengal. For 15 years I worked my every waking hour to better the circumstances of the poorest of the poor in West Bengal, but the atrocities committed by the Communist simply became too much when too many friends were tortured to death so we had to defend ourselves against these attacks and that was the whole background of the Purulia Arms drop.

TIMES NOW: Well I dont know if everyone is going to buy that argument but tell me who sent you? My question to you was who commissioned this arms drop and were there any Indians involved?

Davy: Of course there were Indians involved. There were political forces at the centre . There have been for years MPs who had seen the atrocities committed against the people of Purulia district and 24 MPs had signed the petition to the President to intervene to try to protect these people, nothing happened. And finally central government saw and approved the plans to arm the defence of these innocent people

TIMES NOW: Name the people, Can you name the people?
Davy: I can tell you as much as that RAW, Research and Analysis Wing of India was informed by external forces and approved of the arms drop months in advance of the arms drop

TIMES NOW: Which external forces?

Davy: The communication was between the British Intelligence MI5 and RAW. There was a British ex Intelligence officer on board the plane, the Indian authorities knew the flight plan the people on board , the cargo, the drop zone everything was known well in advance and approved well in advance.

TIMES NOW: You are saying that the Indian government knew and authorised these arms drop over Indian territory by you?

Davy: I am saying that there were political forces in the centre in Delhi who saw it as an opportune way to further their political agenda. You must remember that we are talking ancient history here, but in 1988 centre introduced Presidential rule in Tripura after engaging in supplying arms to different rebel groups there. The same strategy was announced publically in the beginning of the 90's that there was a decision to introduce Presidential rule in West Bengal and therefore it was seen as a furthering of this agenda that arms were procured to protect local people.

TIMES NOW: What was your role ? You were working with the British and American Intelligence officials, were there American Intelligence officials also involved or only British?

Davy: To my knowledge there were no Americans involved.

TIMES NOW: So this was, these were British MI5 which was involved in this and you are saying they told the India's external intelligence agency RAW about it?

Davy: No I am not telling that. This is a well published fact go to their webpage and you will see the exact date when MI5 conferred this whole matter to RAW. It is a matter of public knowledge that this coordination was taking place

TIMES NOW: This is the reason you are saying that you were able to slip in that night, in 1995? You flew into Indian territory, you are saying you were allowed to fly in, the movement was facilitated and you are saying the Indian government was told about it?

Davy: Well look at the zest of this. It is a matter of public record that RAW was informed on three defined dates by MI5 about the arms drop, the people on board the plane, the drop zone everything was informed. This is a matter of public record. I don't know who in their right mind would fly a plane from the arch enemy of Pakistan into Indian airspace with a load of clandestine weapons without having it cleared by with the Indian authorities. It is unthinkable to do that.

TIMES NOW: So tell me what happened after that? If you managed to come in, tell me about that flight, where you took it from, how you got the clearances, what assurances you had if you are saying you had some assurances from the Indian side? Who were those assurances coming from?

Davy: That was a lot of questions, can we take them one at a time

TIMES NOW: Sure, Where were the assurances coming from?

Davy: You were saying how did the flight happen, how did I get away afterwards, what did you ask?

TIMES NOW: No tell me about the first part on how the flight happened, who gave you the assurances that you would be allowed to come in?

Davy: Well, I was in direct contact with an MP who told me that he was in further contact with the Prime Minister's office and on the 16th of December I was called in Karachi by these people who told me that I had to finish the job within 48 hours otherwise the window that they had opened for me would be closed down again. So it was very clear that the communication was on time and clearly it was also defined. It was proven in the court case that the radar station concerned, the Military radar that could have detected this was turned off, was switched off and the order for this came from RAW. So don't take my word for it is what I am saying

TIMES NOW: Can you name the Member of Parliament. Please?

Davy: We will do that live

TIMES NOW: Why should we not believe that this is a tall claim?

Davy: Well, I can only repeat that, please verify the facts that I am putting forward for you. Please verify that these contacts between MI5 and RAW did take place, please verify the fact that the radar was turned off, please verify all these external facts and you will see that what I am saying is the only logical explanation of what happened that time

TIMES NOW: Neils, you just said that you had been called in by some people in Karachi and set about finishing this job in 48 hours. Who are these people? When you mention these people, who are these people?

Davy: Well I can only say to you that immediately after the arms drop went wrong and crew and Peter Bleach was caught, there was an investigation going into a Bihari political connection into the arms drop. And that line of investigation was curiously enough, closed down very shortly afterwards and throughout these 15 years that has passed since, three Parliamentary Commissions in India have been commissioned. Nobody has ever seen the result of those. Though it is a matter of public record outside India that there was this communication between MI5 and RAW it has never been discussed in the Indian public, so everytime that the real story has tried to sneak its way forward in this, it has been clamped down and stopped. For obvious reasons because in the Central government in India it is only to turn a couple of pages and one will know who was behind and why, it is a matter of knowledge, it is not a matter of guesswork.

TIMES NOW: What about you leaving? In what circumstances did you leave the country? There have been different reports about that, can you elaborate a little bit on that please?
Davy: Well, first I was helped out of the airport in Mumbai and after that I was smuggled out of India to Nepal on the backseat of an MP's car. I can give you the full details and the latest dates when we talk again but it was very clear that those forces that had approved the arms drop did not want me to be interrogated by the CBI or anybody because the story that I can tell, would not have been convenient. Obviously today there must be political forces in India who see it as an opportune time for me to tell the full story and that's why I think the extradition is now on the table.

TIMES NOW : Neils...in this period when you were, before you disappeared, you vanished from Mumbai airport from what we know, in this period when you were held, were you in touch with the people , like you mentioned the Member of Parliament, were you in touch with those people in this period?

Davy: Before leaving the country you mean?

TIMES NOW- Yes

Davy: Yes, I was in their care

TIMES NOW: Where

Davy: First in Delhi, Mumbai, Delhi and then over the border, land border to Nepal

TIMES NOW: And you were taken in an MP's car into Nepal through the land route
Davy- Right

TIMES NOW: And there were officials with you?
Davy: I don't know what officials they were. But there was a car in front, a car behind with AK-47 holding guard, the whole way. I obviously did not ask people's name and what there duty was but it was obvious to me that I was being whisked out of the country by people who had the power and the ability to do it


TIMES NOW : What is your link with the Anandmarg?

Davy- Well, you see for 15 years I worked with development work in Africa, in Central America and especially in India. I worked with the Catholic Church, I worked with Anandmarg. I worked with Greenpeace, with different organizations through these 15 years. The project in Purulia was reference project for all NGO's around the world that I worked with. Everybody referred to the development project of Purulia as the light and the way to do things. To develop grassroots up with local resources with local people. So this project caught the imagination of not only me, but thousands around the world and when we continuously got these reports of people, even an Australian women who was almost killed by the Communist goondas, her name was Patricia. When we saw our volunteers ending up like you see in these pictures here, butchered by the Communists. This made an enormous impression, you must remember that I as a young 19 year old came to Kolkata for the first time, coming from one of the most affluent corners of the world and I saw the suffering in Kolkata and it moved my heart to do something. I had to work tirelessly for 15 years.

At crossroads: Bengal and the first time voter (First Person)

Courtesy: NewsOne

West Bengal was at the crossroads of history and my first vote could determine the path it would traverse. So, after waiting since childhood to step into a polling booth, D-day finally arrived Wednesday.

Upon entering the Netaji Nagar Vidyamandir polling centre in south Kolkata’s Tollygunge constituency, I was high on adrenalin, but also feeling the weight of responsibility.

I have never been too interested in politics as sports is my cup of tea. But as a student of journalism, I have to keep track of political happenings. In my own state, I was well aware the Communists who had ruled for 34 years were battling a determined opposition charge for regime change.

At the booth, security personnel milled around. There was a huge queue in front of one room, a smaller one in front of another and the last one with the smallest. I checked my voting slip and accordingly joined, unfortunately, the longest one!

My father and uncle voted and went home, advising me to put my mobile phone on silent mode. There were around five polling officers in one room and the EVM lay covered in thick brown paper on four sides. The heart skipped a beat.

Finally my turn came. I stood in front of the first polling officer. He shouted out my number written on the slip to one of his colleagues. I looked at him and he smiled back. To be honest, that smile helped me overcome the goosebumps.

My voter card verified, I walked up to the second officer as he asked me to sign. He too verified the voter card and jotted down some information. Then I moved on to pass the final hurdle before meeting my ballot. The third officer drew the famous purple line on my tip of the first finger of my left hand.

I felt proud. The realisation that I was now free to exercise my constitutional right, gave me a sense of confidence before casting that all-important vote.

I stood there, had a good look at the machine which had all the candidates’ names printed on it with their parties’ symbol following suit. As I pressed the button, a loud and prolonged beep filled the room and I could feel that my vote had been cast.

Aged 21, voter ID in hand, as I walked out of the room, only one sentence ran through my mind: I have the power.

Assam: CPI says it won't support BJP for Government

Assam is expected to throw a fractured mandate. Though the AGP and BJP is expected to marginally improve their seat shares, getting the requisite number for a majority should be difficult for the combine. The CPI has ruled support for any government in which the BJP is a participant.

Assam: CPI says it won't support BJP for Government

Courtesy: Times of India

GUWAHATI: The Assam state executive of the Communist Party of India (CPI) announced that the party has decided to stay away from any alliance that includes the BJP for the formation of the next government at Dispur. The result of the recently-held assembly polls will be declared on May 13.

Addressing a press conference at the party headquarters here on Wednesday, the national executive member of CPI, Promode Gogoi, said, "We are not going to support or go along with BJP in the formation of the government in the state at any cost." Aside from the BJP, the CPI is open to joining hands with all other Left, democratic and regional parties to form a democratic alternative government, Gogoi added.

"We believe the BJP's coming to power in the state would be harmful for the people here. We never support parties that are communal and pose a threat to the unity and integrity of the people of the state," Gogoi said, adding this time the Left party would garner more seats than it has in previous elections.

The CPI was also critical of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) for its changing stand. "Earlier they had said that they are not going to ally with any national parties, but the scenario seems to be changing in their camp," he said.

The national executive raised the issue of repeal of the Armed Forces (Special Power) Act (AFSPA) from the region. "As always, we demand that the AFSPA, which is anti-democratic and repressive act that empowers even a constable to kill people on the basis of suspicion, be repealed from the region," Gogoi said. Irom Sharmila Chanu, the Iron Lady of Manipur, has been fasting for more than a decade now, demanding the repeal of the draconian act. The CPI also extended its support to Gandhian activist Anna Hazare, who is to visit the state on May 3 for a meeting. "We have always fought against corruption. Our party extends its full support to the proposed public meeting of Anna Hazare to root out corruption," Gogoi said.

The veteran CPI leader also said the Left party might not get a two-third majority in the ongoing West Bengal polls. "After reigning for more than 30 years, we have definitely gathered some anti-incumbency in the state. Let us see what happens," he said.

Kanimozhi issue: Defensive DMK snarls and bears it

Courtesy: Economic Times

CHENNAI: At its headquarters, the Anna Arivalayam here on Wednesday the ruling DMK continued to put up an enigmatic front in its relations with the Congress, expressing shock at the party's MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi being dragged into the spectrum case, but stopping well short of snapping links with the Congress.

After its high-level committee met over the issue of Kanimozhi being named a co-conspirator in the 2G scam by the CBI, the DMK leadership, on expected lines, decided to back the party MP and fight the case legally. Kanimozhi herself repeated that line, when pressed for comment, stating "It's in the court. We will fight it legally".

Chief minister M Karunanidhi said he was "anguished" over the inclusion of his daughter Kanimozhi in the second round of charge sheets in the spectrum allocation case. His statement is considered a morale booster for the MP, amidst speculation whether the party has not backed her strongly enough and is facing isolation within the DMK.

However, the party showed no signs of taking a hard line against the Congress by withdrawing support to the UPA coalition. A firm line of thinking on the issue is only expected after the results of the Tamil Nadu assembly election, which DMK leaders hope will go in its favour.

Read More:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/kanimozhi-issue-defensive-dmk-snarls-and-bears-it/articleshow/8101182.cms

If DMK loses polls, blame their Renewable Energy policy in Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu had finally voted on April 13th though counting is on May 13th. In what is seen as an extremely tight contest with tempers rising high during the campaign, among the major poll issues was the acute power shortage faced by the state. With voting over, Tamil Nadu is set to face longer power outages following a decision by the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (TANGEDCO) to increase the load shedding period from two hours to three hours every day.

Chennai faces an-hour-long power cut while other parts of the state it will be not less than 3 hours a day. The TANGEDCO decision comes in the face of an increasing power deficit in the State, combined with rising deficits in other States. 

“This has created a situation where Tamil Nadu cannot purchase power from these States. Even the power purchase for Rs 50 crore per day has proved insufficient to meet the demand. With no other options available, it has been decided to increase the power outage,” read a statement from the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation.

The Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation is expecting this acute shortage to continue for a few weeks. The corporation has asked the people to put up with the cuts as it was expecting the yield from wind energy sources to increase in the coming weeks. Speaking to Express, Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB) Chairman and Managing Director C P Singh said it would be difficult to speculate on how long the extended outage would be in place. “It will depend on a number of environmental factors. How intense the summer is will also play a role,” he said.

Asked if there was some sort of a roadmap to make up for the power deficit in the State, Singh said: 

“There is no roadmap. We have exhausted all our sources. Power is just not available. The extended power cuts will reduce the deficit from 3,500 MW to 1,500 MW.”

Wind power accounts for a littlle more than 15-20% of the state's overall capacity. The State’s contribution is 60 per cent of the installed capacity of the country’s wind mill power projects. Much of it has been installed in the last 10 years when not many major conventional plants have come online.

As an energy consultant observed: "Tamil Nadu has put too many of its eggs in the wind basket." 

The result - just as agriculture in the country is a gamble on the monsoon, the power situation in the state has become a gamble on wind. The city, which is facing rolling power cuts and other unscheduled outages, may be suffering the consequences of an unbalanced development of wind power in the state. With conventional power generation capacity stagnant for the last 10 years in Tamil Nadu, wind has become the marginal, peaking power expected to meet the city's additional power needs exactly the wrong application for wind power, say experts.

While the state sweats, the air-conditioned offices of Greenpeaces, WWFs, Oxfams and ChristianAids, advocates  of renewable energy are hardly affected as they have multiple systems of power backup. Many of the staff reportedly have gone on vacations to hill resorts! 

Meanwhile, the agenda of these foreign funded NGOs with their hidden agenda appears achieved - bringing industrial activity in the state to a standstill. Industrial activities, particularly a majority of engineering, manufacturing, textile and small, tiny and micro units in Tamil Nadu are likely to shut down on May 5 to protest against continuing power cuts, both scheduled and unscheduled, seriously affecting production. Speaking to reporters, M Kandhasamy, president, Coimbatore District Small Industries Association said members of 83 associations of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Southern India Engineering Manufacturers Association, South India Mills'' Association, Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.