Narendra Modi puts RSS-Gadkhari in place but problems remain

Sanjay Joshi, a Modi baiter and a RSS-Gadkhari stooge resigned from the BJP Executive Committee a few hours ago paving the way for Modi to participate in the the BJP's National Executive Meeting. Make no mistake, this is a big victory for Nadrendra Modi. 

However, the BJP's succession battle will resolve itself only when it is in a position to form a government. 'Even if the numbers are on the BJP's side, many regional leaders can't afford to support a Modi-led government for fear of losing their Muslim vote blocs,' argues Shivam Vij.

North Indian Muslims will keep Modi's prime ministership ambitions at bay

Courtesy: Rediff.com

 

There is a lot of talk about whether Narendra Modi could be India's next prime minister. The very question scares many of us, because we have seen how Modi presided over, if not caused, the mass murder of over 1,000 people in Gujarat 10 years ago.

Having done that, he has consolidated the Hindu vote in his favour and has been in power since. Not only has there been little justice for the 2002 violence, Muslims in Gujarat suffer worse discrimination and lack of opportunities than anywhere else in India. It is not about Muslim discrimination alone: Modi has generally emerged as an authoritarian figure who brooks no dissent.

The talk of making him PM is ostensibly based on his good performance as chief minister -- we are told how Gujarat's economy has grown by leaps and bounds, how Gujarat is a prosperous state, one that is ably governed and is corruption-free, one that attracts investment from across the world. Much of this is exaggerated and much is true. Gujarat was always ahead of many other states in economic indicators -- Modi knew how to take credit for it.

The talk of Modi-for-PM has also gained ground because the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance government is so discredited that its own leaders don't expect to return to power. This results in the likelihood of a Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance returning to power. In which case, could Mr Modi be prime minister?

The question hinges on three variables. Firstly, can the BJP exploit the sentiment against the UPA and get enough seats to form even a coalition government? Second, is Modi the BJP's choice for the top job? Third, if Modi is the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, will various coalition partners support a Modi-led government?

The Lok Sabha has 543 members; a government needs 272 votes to be formed. For a coalition government, it is considered that the leading party needs to have 180+ and can then go around look for 92 votes from potential allies. In 2009, the Congress won 206 seats and the BJP 116. Even with the Congress at its most unpopular, can the BJP cross the 180 mark?

India's general elections are a sum of the states. If you go state by state you will see the BJP in 2009 did so well in many states where the Congress has a good presence that its seats can only come down -- 8 of 14 in Jharkhand, 19 of 28 in Karnataka, 16 of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, 15 of 26 in Gujarat, 10 of 11 in Chhattisgarh, 3 of 4 in Himachal Pradesh. Only in Rajasthan does it await major gains, where it won only four of 25 seats. The BJP is likely to make minor gains in Uttarakhand (where all five seats are held by the Congress), Punjab  (where it has one of 13), and so on.

In other words, the BJP could at best reach 150 seats. The Congress's decline will help the BJP only as much as it will help regional parties, whose share could go up. The only thing that could change that is a political wave that is not only anti-Congress, but also decidedly pro-BJP.

A BJP worker I met near Allahabad during the Uttar Pradesh assembly election in March 2012 told me that announcing Narendra Modi as the party's candidate for PM would be a game-changer. It would polarise voters, it would make Modi the issue, it would force people to take sides. In other words, it would be like the Babri Masjid movement of the early 1990s which turned the BJP into a serious player. With that or any other calculation in mind, will the BJP declare Modi as its prime ministerial candidate? The BJP is unlikely to do that because it has too many prime ministerial candidates.

L K Advani who has forever been the prime minister-in-waiting, must be a very hurt man these days. Just because he could not become prime minister in 2009, why should it mean that the brothers and sisters of the great Hindu family have started disregarding the Karachi-born Sindhi hardliner? He continues to be active in politics despite having announced 'retirement' because he fears he will become unwell like Vajpayee if he simply sits at home. It is said that no age is too old to become prime minister -- once you get the post you suddenly become fit enough to last five years.

But there's a restless, young lot in the BJP. There is 'Bharatiya Nari' Sushma Swaraj, who hopes to be the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh's choice. The RSS is the mother of the BJP. I asked an RSS insider who the Sangh's ideal choice for PM would be. "Believe it or not," he said, "Nitin Gadkari”. 

Gadkari is party president. He was forced to the national stage by the RSS. Despite his sagging popularity, the RSS thinks he's a nice guy, because he's after all a Marathi Brahmin, just like the RSS top brass in Nagpur. Then there is Arun Jaitley the suave lawyer, darling of the English media, who hopes to be Modi's mukhauta in the manner that Vajpayee was the 'moderate' mask of a hardline Advani. Having used the RSS and its sister organisation, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, in the 2002 pogrom, Modi kicked them aside like a used napkin.

Modi has not shown any willingness to mend his relations with the Sangh Parivar or even reach out to BJP leaders. Good fascists never say sorry. "The ball is in his court," a BJP leader close to Gadkari told me. It's not as simple as that, though. Gadkari and the RSS have gone on the offensive against Modi by daring to induct into the party his bete noire Sanjay Joshi, an RSS activist, because of whom Modi did not campaign in the UP election nor is he planning to attend this week's BJP national executive meet.

The BJP's post-Vajpayee succession battle will resolve itself only when power is nigh, which means, only if the BJP is in a position to form a government. For that it will need to woo regional satraps, many of whom have prime ministerial ambitions of their own. Even if the numbers are on the BJP's side, many regional leaders cannot afford to support a Modi-led government for fear of losing their Muslim vote blocs. These include Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh, Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal.

In other words, North Indian Muslims will keep the tormentor of Gujarati Muslims in check! Even other potential allies, such as Naveen Patnaik, aren't particularly great fans of strident Hindutva. All in all, the chances of Modi as prime minister of India in 2014 seem very remote. Why then is there such a lot of buzz around the question?

The buzz is a creation of Modi's PR machinery and is aimed at positioning himself more within the BJP than without, for the moment.

In December, Gujarat will have its third assembly election since the 2002 pogrom. Many predict that Modi will lose some votes and seats -- some even say he may have to leave the chief minister's chair. Interesting times are ahead of us.

Germany: Support for Merkel's party slides in new opinion poll

Courtesy: Reuters

Support for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives has slid to its lowest level in over half a year following their drubbing in an important regional election, according to a new opinion poll published on Wednesday.

The survey by Forsa for Stern magazine is the second this week to show a substantial narrowing of the gap between Merkel's conservative bloc and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), the big winners in the vote in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW).

It comes against a backdrop of rising pressure on Merkel - from international partners and from opposition parties at home - to take bolder steps to boost growth in stricken euro zone members like Greece and Spain.

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel showed support for Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) tumbling four points to 31 percent, its lowest level since October 2011 and down from 38 percent in February. The SPD rose one point to 27 percent, just four points behind.

"The election disaster (in NRW) has irritated a lot of CDU supporters," Forsa chief Manfred Guellner said. "State election defeats often lead to this kind of drop in support."

Guellner said there were no signs that Merkel's own popularity had been affected by the regional setback. In a face-to-face contest against Hannelore Kraft, the rising SPD star who won the NRW vote, 48 percent of those surveyed backed Merkel and only 29 percent her centre-left rival.

But the poll result will be a source of concern for Merkel's party. A separate survey by INSA for the Bild newspaper on Tuesday had the CDU just one point ahead of the SPD. 

The embarrassing loss in Germany's most populous state prompted Merkel to fire her environment minister Norbert Roettgen last week.

Roettgen had been the lead candidate for the CDU in NRW, where the party scored its worst result in the post-war era, and had been playing an important role in steering the government's energy strategy following Merkel's shock decision last year to accelerate a phase-out of nuclear power.

The chancellor is due to meet state premiers on Wednesday morning to try to get the stalled "Energiewende", or energy switch, back on track, before heading to an EU summit in Brussels to discuss new steps to combat the bloc's debt crisis.

Rajini fan club secy takes up challenge to contest bypoll in Pudukottai

Courtesy: Times of India

CHENNAI: The district secretary of a Rajinikanth fans association, K Sridhar, on Monday filed his nomination to contest the Pudukottai assembly bypolls as an Independent candidate.

With almost all key opposition parties, including DMK, Congress, MDMK, CPI and PMK backing out, the main contest is between the ruling AIADMK and the DMDK. The Rajinikanth fan's entry may add colour to the campaign.

Sridhar admitted he had filed his nomination on Monday without the actor's blessings. He said it was the fan club's district committee's decision to contest the election. 

"We haven't got permission from Rajni or from the state fans club head Sudhakar. Functionaries of neighbouring district fan clubs took the decision to contest here," Sridhar said. "We have been waiting for our Thalaivar (leader) to make a political entry for a long time. Now, we will show him the response from the public by our candidature. It is our long time dream."

Sridhar has been actively working with the Rajnikanth fans club from 1983. He took charge as the fan club's district secretary from 1998. "People of Tamil Nadu are always ready to vote for Rajnikanth. Moreover, we have carried out several welfare measures here. If Rajni gives me his blessings, it would be great news for the fans," he said. Sridhar will face heavy-weight AIADMK's Karthik V R Thondaiman and DMDK's N Zaheer Hussain.

Rajnikanth's entry into Tamil Nadu politics had been a subject of speculation for a long time. In recent times, however, the actor has been reluctant to make any political statements or take a stand. However, his fans never gave up hope and have for long been demanding that he take the political plunge.

In the AIADMK camp, almost all the 52 members of its working committee, met on Tuesday in Pudukottai and discussed poll strategy. The AIADMK candidate Karthik filed his nomination.

Villagers pelt stones at Nitish’s convoy

Courtesy: The Hindu

 

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar faced protests from angry locals who pelted stones at a couple of vehicles in his convoy during his ‘Seva Yatra’ at Chausa in Buxar district on Wednesday, official sources said.

The trouble started when a large number of villagers gathered alongside the road as they wanted the convoy of Chief Minister must stop at Chausa and listen to their grievances on electricity and water supply in the area.

As the convoy did not stop at the place, angry locals pelted stones damaging a couple of government vehicles.

The Chief Minister’s convoy, however, went ahead.

No harm was caused to anyone in the stone-throwing as policemen chased them away, the sources said.

Polls show US presidential battle tightening

The Associated Press

 

U.S. voters are nearly evenly divided between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney with five months to go before the election, especially on handling the economy, polls show.

With U.S. unemployment still hovering above 8 percent, both candidates have stepped up their emphasis on jobs and the economy. Obama and Romney have offered a starkly differing vision of how the economy should work as they appeal to voters who say jobs are the foremost issue in the November election. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat over handling the economy. They are tied at 47 percent. Overall, 49 percent said they back Obama for re-election and 46 percent preferred Romney, a statistically insignificant difference. Other recent national polls show a similarly close margin.

Earlier polls generally showed the former Massachusetts governor holding a slight lead over Obama on economic issues and Obama slightly ahead overall. But the tightening follows an aggressive attack on Romney's business credentials by the Obama campaign, including ads painting him as a job-destroying corporate raider at Bain Capital, the private-equity firm he co-founded.

The Obama campaign has focused on two companies that were closed down or failed after they were absorbed into the web of enterprises under Bain Capital. Romney maintains financial ties to the company but left it years ago to run the Salt Lake City Olympic games and then to serve as Massachusetts governor.

Romney called the attacks "character assassination." But Obama defended the tactic on Monday as legitimate and suggested Romney's background was a poor qualification for the White House since being president involves more than "maximizing profits."

The survey found that 80 percent of Americans still hold a negative view of the economy, but 54 percent said they felt more positively about the economic situation in the coming years, and 58 percent felt the financial prospects would improve.

The president says the drive for profit is "not always going to be good for communities or businesses or workers." The Obama campaign's line of attack illustrates the president's complicated relationship with the business community. He has used populist language to attack Wall Street executives and bankers as "fat cats" and called for an end to tax subsidies for oil and gas companies, but he also expanded the government's rescue of the auto industry and has promoted tax breaks for small businesses.

While some of his Wall Street support has waned, he still draws a significant amount of campaign contributions from major investors, retaining a good relationship with, among others, billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

Romney's campaign has welcomed the debate on jobs.

Hacked Karnataka BJP website offers Viagra

Courtesy: IBNLIVE

BANGALORE: After the Bruhat Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) website was hacked earlier this week, on Saturday cyber miscreants hacked the main page of the Karnataka BJP website. Officials from the ruling party remained unaware about the issue and reacted only when Express pointed out the compromised version of the website. While the original website too was available, the compromised version, selling viagra and fertility drugs, was available to anyone who searched for “BJP Karnataka Ministers” on www.google.com.

Interestingly, the Cyber Security Response Team that had cracked the IP address of the hacker when the BBMP website was compromised has managed to track down the hackers behind this attack too. Investigators have found a similar pattern behind both the attacks occurring within one week.

“The hackers are using this pattern to issue a threat to the owners of the compromised website.In this case, they are pointing out to the Karnataka BJP that they are not very happy with matters. They have left no note or warning, but since they have hacked only one page of the website, they are pointing out that they have the technicalities and the potential and would not spare them the next time,” said Shubha Mangala Sunil, founder chairperson, Cyber Security Response Team. 

Chitradurga MP Janardhana Swamy who handles the website for BJP said he is utterly shocked by this incident.

“There are several websites in Karnataka but our website was attacked. We will take strict action against these cyber miscreants. There could be a motive behind this and we will set up a team of experts to investigate and track down the hacker,” he said.

RSS-Nitin Gadkhari plot to ensure Narendra Modi’s Defeat

The plot is thickening. The RSS is determined to make their blue eyed boy, good for nothing, political light weight, fatty Nitin Gadkhari as BJP’s next prime ministerial candidate. This is a man who diverted rivers in water parched Vidharba District in Maharashtra to construct power plants as his business! India's prime farmer suicide destination!

But the RSS-Nitin Gadkhari combine want Narendra Modi out of the way by the next Lok Sabha elections and from media reports emanating from Gujarat, they are fanning a huge Patel rebellion against Modi by resurrecting the political fortunes of former BJP CM, Keshubhai Patel.

In the last assembly elections in 2007, Modi had sailed through despite a rebellion of sorts by Patidar leaders within the state BJP. He had managed to do so by sharpening the divide between the Leuva and Kadva Patels, helped by Keshubhai’s absence from the country.

The simmering, anti-establishment sentiment in the over one-crore-strong community, which has a sizeable presence in 75 of the total 182 assembly constituencies, is cause for concern, with Vidhan Sabha elections due in Gujarat around December this year. With Patels figuring amongst those convicted in the Sardarpura and Ode massacres, there was, for the first time, slogan-shouting against Modi at both judgement venues.

So paranoid he is of the plot within his party to marginalize him; that Modi even took to courting Muslims in the state by fasting and reaching out to the Muslim community. Gandhinagar is Modi’s Assembly constituency and LK Advani’s Lok Sabha constituency. For the first  time in several years, the Congress took control over Gandhinagar Corporation. Even more stunning was the Congress snatching away Mansa, part of the Gandinagar Lok Sabha constituency, a stronghold of the BJP from 1995. The Congress has now taken the fight to the lion’s den and think they have a chance in the next Assembly polls in December.

First Post: Keshubhai vs Modi: Can NaMo lose Gujarat?

  

Who is afraid of Narendra Modi? If BJP stalwart Keshubhai Patel is to be believed, it’s not just liberals and Congresswalahs. “The Patidars (Patels) are living under the shadow of fear,” the former Chief Minister thundered earlier this year. A message he has since repeated the message at various public forums.

On 13 May, he went one first step futher: “Gujarat is ruled by pindaris and thugs and people live under fear, including IAS and IPS officers…. Those who live in the hearts of the people don’t need to force-ferry crowds to their public meetings…. Power’s being used just for personal publicity.”

That there is no love lost between Narendra Modi and Patel is hardly news. The latter was unceremoniously cast out and replaced by Modi in 2001, irrevocably souring the relationship between mentor and protege. And certainly Patel did make similar noises ahead of the 2007 elections, but backed down under patry pressure. Sources claim, however, that “this time he is determined to take the fight to its logical conclusion.”

Patel himself promised to remain defiant in his May 6 speech at a meeting of the Somnath Temple Trust, where he added this pop culture bon mot: “Dar ke agey jeet hai (victory is yours if you overcome fear); we require to hold our nerves”.

But is this the usual strum and drang generated by old political rivals ahead of elections? A routine bid for attention and favours by a warhorse cast out into the wilderness? If rumblings in the media are to be believed, this time around the Keshubhai threat is real.

Outlook Magazine points to a rising rebellion amongst the Patel community that may skewer Modi’s fortunes:

In the last assembly elections in 2007, Modi had sailed through despite a rebellion of sorts by Patidar leaders within the state BJP. He had managed to do so by sharpening the divide between the Leuva and Kadva Patels, helped by Keshubhai’s absence from the country.

The strategy, however, does not seem to be working this time. Like the Muslims who, post-2002 riots, flaunt their identity in their way of dressing and headgear, Patels too are doing so with a vengeance, sporting simple ‘Patidar’ stickers on their vehicles, business establishments and even homes. Massive community congregations have already been held. The presence of Bapa (revered elder) at a nine-lakh-strong Leuva Patel gathering at Khodaldham near Rajkot in January and his advice—that it is right to present the other cheek if you are wrong but slap back twice if you are in the right—earned him a standing ovation.

If empty chairs greeted Modi at a Leuva Patel function organised in Surat last month, over 60,000 people were present at a community gathering at Jamkandorna in Saurashtra two days later, where Keshubhai issued a call to arms. The simmering, anti-establishment sentiment in the over one-crore-strong community, which has a sizeable presence in 75 of the total 182 assembly constituencies, is cause for concern, with Vidhan Sabha elections due in Gujarat around December this year. With Patels figuring amongst those convicted in the Sardarpura and Ode massacres, there was, for the first time, slogan-shouting against Modi at both judgement venues.

The reasons for the increasing ire include the Modi government’s neglect of the agricultural sector, and the perception that the Patels are being targeted in the court cases of the 2002 riots. Empty venues are also becoming a problem for Modi in Brahmin community gatherings.

If rumblings in the media are to be believed, this time around the Keshubhai threat is real. But more alarmingly there are signs that Patel may enjoy the tacit support of BJP party honchos this time around. The Hindu notes “the increasing warmth between Mr Patel and Mr Advani” at very same meeting of the Somnath temple trust, and adds:

If Mr. Patel goes all out against Mr. Modi, he is certain to get support from a number of other veteran leaders of the party in the State who have been finding themselves totally isolated and ignored. Besides Mr. Shankarsinh Waghela, “second pillar” of the BJP after Keshubhai Patel, who has since joined the Congress, several other senior party leaders like another former Chief Minister Suresh Mehta, the former Union Minister, Kashiram Rana, are waiting in the wings to join the fray against Mr. Modi.

Times of India also points out that Patel – despite his increasingly incendiary attacks – has received an invite to the BJP National Executive meeting to be held later this month in Mumbai.

“The party is aware of Keshubhai’s grievances, after he was removed as Gujarat’s chief minister overnight in 2001 to make way for Modi. At the conclave, Keshubhai is likely to address key issues that hurt the party in Gujarat,” an unnamed senior party leader told TOI.

Most observers don’t quite buy BJP’s former minister of state Gordhan Zadaphia’s claim that Patel’s invite is a sign that Modi’s “political isolation has begun in the party.” But it is puzzling that the BJP leadership has not made a single move to rein in Patel in the run-up to a critical election. More so, since Keshubhai has been banned by the same leaders in the past from attending Patel community gatherings.

If Patel does show up, a frontal attack at Modi from the dais at the two-day meet will have greater impact, more so since Modi himself is likely to be absent. The Gujarat CM is rumoured to be furious at the rehabilitation of his rival Sanjay Joshi and plans to amend the constitution to extend Nitin Gadkari’s tenure as party chief. Having already bailed on the last National Executive meeting, Outlook warns, “Should he skip it again, he may as well bid goodbye to his hopes of featuring as BJP’s prime minsterial candidate.”

Wishful thinking aside, all of this may be just petty politicking as usual, and not an omen of Modi’s decline. But the Patel vote will indeed be significant in the upcoming elections. And there is no sign of Keshubhai fading silently into the night. On Friday, a large group of local leaders from across Gujarat held a meeting at his residence, urging him to “to give his leadership to a campaign against Modi.” That can’t be good news for Modi, even if it is indeed manufactured PR.