UP Sahara Pre-Poll Survey

Health warning: The Sahara group is a Mulayam Singh crony and who significantly benefited during the SP tenure. Such was their closeness when Mayawati assumed power, she clamped down on the Sahara Group.

The Uttar Pradesh Development Council, which then was headed by Mulayam Singh and packed with his close friends like Anil Ambani, Adi Godrej, Subrata Roy (sahara) and Amitabh Bachchan. Mulayam Singh’s friends in the business world can be divided into two groups. The first group comprises big business barons like Ambani, Godrej and Subrata Roy of the Sahara group, all considered extremely close to him. The second group comprises industrialists like Kushagra Bajaj of Bajaj Hindustan, Ramesh Chandra of Unitech Ltd, Vinay Maloo of Himachal Futuristic Communication Ltd (HFCL), Ashok Chaturvedi of Uflex Industries (until recently known as Flex Industries), US Bhartia of India Glycols, Bhushan Uppal of the Uppal group and Ponty Chadha of the Chadha group. Except Vinay Maloo, the rest in the second group have substantial business interests in Uttar Pradesh and flourished during the Mulayam Singh regime. It is this corporate cum media interests that is backing Mulayam Singh to the hilt this election.

Read this survey for its entertainment value.

Courtesy: Samaylive.com

The pre-poll survey of Sahara News Network on Monday predicted a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh after the February polls in the state.

The survey also predicts that Mayawati’s social engineering formula has utterly failed to work this time. The ruling BSP government is all set to receive massive jolt in the forthcoming assembly election 2012, according to the survey. However, no party will get the absolute majority in the 403-member house.

Sahara News Network has conducted biggest pre-poll survey and the results are quite shocking and surprising for all. The picture of Uttar Pradesh Assembly is quite clear. The survey predicts a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh with no political party is getting the absolute majority.

In the 2007 Assembly elections, Mayawati-led BSP had surprised all political outfits after crossing magic figure of 202. But, this time, there is no smooth sailing for ruling party. The ruling The survey, conducted by the Sahara News network, shows a sharp drop for Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party, which will get only 100-110 seats. In the last election, BSP had 206 seats.

The Samajwadi Party, led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, will emerge single largest party with 140-150 seats out of 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly house. The survey also indicates that the real battle will be between the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party, with the latter making considerable gains.

The Congress Party, who is contesting election jointly with Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has also been making huge gain since last has also huge gain since the last assembly elections in 2007. Cong-RLD alliance is expected to bag 60-70 seats in the assembly election 2012.

On the other hand, Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) is expected to manage 80-90 seats. According to this biggest survey, Samajwadi Party will get 142 seats while BSP will be reduced to 104. 85 BJP members are expected to win the elections while Congress alliance will win 48 constituencies. 12 seats are going in favour of others.

As far as vote percent is concerned, SP has been earning 26.06 percent while BSP is getting 21.48 percent vote. BJP and Congress have respectively 20.67 and 18.48 vote percent.

The region-wise survey shows that Mulayam Singh-led Samajwadi Party has been leading in Awadh and Purvanchal region. However, Rahul Gandhi’s charisma has worked in Bundelkhand region and it is helping Congress to bag 10 seats in Bundelkhand.

In Awadh region (118 ACs): Samajwadi Party is expected to win 52 constituencies with 29.37 vote percent. BSP will win 20 seats (20.08 %) while Congress and BJP will get 21 (19.40%) and 23 (18.71 %) seats respectively. Others will get two seats.

In Bundelkhand (19 ACs): Congress leading with 10 seats while SP will get five seats. BJP and BSP are expected to claim two seats each.

In Purvanchal region (130 ACs): 50 SP candidates are expected to make it to state Vidhan Sabha while 37 seats are going in favour of BSP. BJP and Congress will get 31 and 5 seats respectively in this region. Other will get seven seats.

In Western Uttar Pradesh (136): Ruling BSP will get 45 seats while SP to win 29 seats. BJP and Congress will get 29 and 12 seats respectively. Other will get three seats.

Record 81% Turnout in Punjab cause all parties to be jittery???

A record 81% turnout by conventional  logic should be a wave election where the winner takes almost all. But articles like this maybe an attempt to create news where there is none!!

Polls over, Punjab parties worry over majority

Courtesy: Hindustan Times

A record turnout in the Punjab assembly elections has sent the political contenders for power into a tizzy over the possible scenarios that could unfold on the day of counting on March 6.

Notwithstanding their claims about securing a majority in the 117-member House, both the incumbent Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine and the Congress are bracing themselves for the possibility of voters throwing up a fractured mandate, and eluding the magic figure of 59 needed to form the government.

Soon after the polling closed on Monday, with an impressive 81% voters making the trip to the polling booth, key strategists in the Akali and Congress camps got down to the number games and worked out contingency plans in case of a hung assembly.

Both sides have started identifying potential winners from the Sanjha Morcha and independents. The People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) led by Manpreet Singh Badal would be most vulnerable to poaching in case a few of its candidates come up winners.

Well-placed SAD sources said that deputy chief minister and SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal’s troubleshooting agenda in the run-up to the counting day would be to “identify and establish a link” with rebels from other parties who are likely to romp home.

The objective, according to party sources, is to put in place a plan to poach Congress rebels and some potential winners of the Sanjha Morcha.

The Congress is also worried about ‘spoilers’ as more than a dozen rebels from the party were in the fray. Given that the election has shaped up into a tight fight, their potential to slice away victory margins has gone up considerably.

Given this backdrop, the task of the Punjab Congress’s think-tank is cut out. The party, hoping to wrest power, has decided to chalk out a multi-pronged strategy to checkmate its rivals. To begin with the Congress will do a post-mortem of the voting pattern with the help of “veteran political analysts and psephologists”, party sources said.

Following this, the party’s in-house analysts will “minutely analyse” the voting percentage of each constituency. “It will be a very conservative analysis of each seat,” a Congress source said. “On the basis of this we will work out a backup plan to deal with the unfolding scenario, positive or otherwise.”

The election may be over, but the political players’ make-or-break manoeuvring to capture power has just begun.

NDTV: Battleground Punjab & Uttarakhand

Courtesy: NDTV

The run-up to the next Lok Sabha elections has begun. And the mood of the people of India will be judged by who wins key state elections in the next few months. Today, two big states went to polls: Uttarakhand and Punjab. So, will the Akalis break the revolving door pattern of the past in Punjab? And will brand Khanduri help the BJP in Uttarakhand? And finally, will the Congress make its mark? We debate.

Will it be repeat for the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab?

Courtesy: Economic Times

CHANDIGARH: With a record 77 per cent of 1.76 crore electorates casting their votes for the 117 Assembly seats of Punjab, fingers are crossed for both the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP alliance and Congress over formation of next government in the state.

However, a look at the data of the Election Commission on polling percentages after Independence from 1951 to 2007, it has been revealed that Akalis have formed the government if the polling in Assembly elections exceeds 70 per cent which has happened thrice earlier.

The state has earlier witnessed over 70 per cent polling in 1967 (71.18 per cent), 1969 (72.27 per cent) and 2007 (75.45 per cent) following which the SAD wrested power.

The polling exceeded 65 per cent on six occasions and again the Akalis romped home to victory on four occasions in 1972 (68.63 per cent), 1977 (65.37 per cent), 1985 (67.53 per cent) and 1997 (68.73 per cent) while in remaining two 1972 (68.63 per cent) and 2002 (65.14 per cent) the Congress returned to power.

The Congress had wrested power in case of polling being less than 65 per cent as was evident in 1951 (57.85 per cent), 1957 (57.72 per cent), 1962 (63.44 per cent) and 1980 (64.33 per cent).

The 1992 poll was boycotted by the Akalis and the Congress had returned to power in the Assembly elections which saw the lowest polling 23.82 per cent.

In 2007 the polling percentage was 75.45 per cent which made Parkash Singh Badal as the Chief Minister of the state for the fourth time, while Gurnam Singh of SAD took the coveted post after 72.27 per cent polling in 1969.

At the 1967 hustings, the polling percentage was 71.18 per cent and it was Gurnam Singh of SAD, who took oath as the Chief Minister of the state. He was the first candidate from the then United Front government which replaced Congress from the seat.

When the polling was 68.73 per cent in 1997 it was Parkash Singh Badal who became the Chief Minister of the state. While in 1985 when the polling percentage was 67.53 SAD's Surjit Singh Barnala was the Chief Minister.

Not only this, in 1977 the polling percentage was 65.37 and it was Parkash Singh Badal who sat on the coveted post.

After having a look at poll percentages from 1951 to 2007, out of total 13 Assembly polls, six times the Chief Minister was given by the Akalis.

In case of Congress party, Partap Singh Kairon repeated two consecutive terms in 1957 and 1962 with the state registering 57.72 and 63.44 per cent polling respectively.

Zail Singh of Congress became the Chief Minister in 1972 after the state registered 68.63 per cent polling whereas Darbara Singh of Congress got the coveted post in 1980 when the state recorded 64.33 per cent of polling.

At the 2002 hustings, Amarinder Singh of Congress became the Chief Minister when the polling was recorded at 65.14 per cent.

Heavy voting in Punjab: Which party will pay a heavy price?

Courtesy: Economic Times

CHANDIGARH: Having set a new record with 76.63 per cent voting in Punjab's election to 117 assembly seats, voters have left the main parties and leaders in a state of anxiety till the results finally come out March 6.

Each of the three main players in Punjab's political spectrum this time, the ruling Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine, the Congress and the newly floated People's Party of Punjab (PPP), are claiming that Monday's heavy voting will go in its favour. But the ground reality for all of them and their leaders is that the high voter turnout has increased the uncertainty.

The 76.63 per cent voting this time by the state's 17,683,559 voters, 8,361,014 of whom were women, was higher than the previous voting record set in the state in the 2007 assembly polls. At that time, 75.47 per cent of the electorate had cast their vote and the Akali Dal-BJP had come into power with 68 seats.

While the Akali Dal-BJP is now claiming that the high turnout was due to the "pro-incumbency" factor, the opposition Congress is sure that the high percentage would vote out the present government led by Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal.

"The Congress is certain to get more than 70 seats in the elections. The very fact that people voted in overwhelming numbers all across the state is a clear indication that people were upset with the Akali-BJP government and they came out to vote against the government's misrule and non-performance," Punjab Congress president and former chief minister Amarinder Singh, who spearheaded the Congress campaign, said after voting ended.

"We are confident that people have reposed faith in us and the results are likely to go beyond our expectations. The feedback we are getting is that the Congress is forming the next government in Punjab."

Even the betting syndicate is putting its money on the Congress to come to power this time. Counting of votes takes place March 6.

But the ruling Akali Dal-BJP alliance too is showing no signs of giving up the fight.

"People have turned out in huge numbers to vote so that the development initiated by us continues. We will win at least 80 seats this time," said a confident Akali Dal president and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal, who took charge of the Akali campaign this time.

PPP, floated last year by former finance minister and the politically estranged nephew of the chief minister, Manpreet Badal, is also confident about the outcome of heavy voting.

"The heavy voting shows that the people are frustrated with both (Akali Dal and Congress). We have emerged as a potent third alternative in Punjab," Manpreet said.

The public posturing of the parties and their leaders notwithstanding, candidates themselves are a little worried by the turnout.

"It can be anyone's game now. In a high turnout, you never know which way it will go. Since there was no wave in anyone's favour this time, things will remain uncertain till March 6. Let's see," a Congress legislator, seeking re-election from the Malwa belt, said.

Did this man sabotage the BJP prospects in Uttarakhand?

Thorn in BJP's flesh

Courtesy: IndiaToday

The BJP seems to be exasperated with the activities of its former Uttarakhand chief minister Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank.

Party leader Ravi Shankar Prasad is believed to have given him a proper dressing down for what seems to be a case of sabotage in B. C. Khanduri's seat, Kotdwar. If Nishank's luck runs out and the BJP manages to win owing to Khanduri's personal appeal, there is likely to be a major shake-up in the saffron quarters.

IndiaToday: BSP on sticky wicket in Uttar Pradesh

 

Courtesy: India Today

The coming state assembly elections have brought to the forefront many issues which were in the background for quite some time in Uttar Pradesh. These are going to decide and define the future of the state. There is one phenomenon that I observe explicitly - there are actually no major issues at stake in this election. But despite that, the current is strong and the voting percentage is likely to increase significantly.

One current somewhat visible is that there is going to be negative voting against the BSP though the government seems to have done quite well on many economic issues. This must be seen in tandem with the cadre based voting for the BSP which has not diminished in any significant manner. The reason for this lies in the mode of governance. The BSP played the caste game in the last elections quite openly - the same game is going to be their undoing this time round.

The BSP played the Dalit-Brahmin card in the last elections and did very well. But since Brahmins by and large (except for Satish Mishra's extended family) got nothing in the bargain, and the kind of governance that has been provided by Mayawati has disillusioned them, they are willing to go elsewhere. With the Brahmins almost deserting the BSP, the party is now looking for new caste equations.

Another feature of the current UP political scene is the freshness of faces. It is undeniable that in the last two- three years two young political faces - Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav - have done a tremendous amount of ground work in the state.

Features

While the former has given people a new point of view, the latter has built up the party cadre and established a rapport with the people. Akhilesh has also successfully changed the image of the party.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, the other major political party in the state, continues to disappoint. The party is unlikely to show any marked improvement over its performance in the last elections. The other parties like the RLD, Peace Party, NCP, RJD and TMC are more of spoilers than winners. But the role of the Peace Party needs to be watched with interest.

The more striking issues that need to be kept in mind are:

Governance, or the lack of it, is going to be an issue. The BSP and its government are now distinct from each other. The government is led by a few and the party people have been left to believe that she is the best thing that could have happened to the Dalits. The common people do accept this, but their role in government is so minimal that they are feeling the pinch of this disconnect.

The first time voters are going to tilt the balance, as their numbers are large and they are aware of several crucial issues facing the nation and the state. This voter class is unnerving almost all parties.

The idea of the division of the state, which the BSP initially thought would be its trump card and would also confound the other political parties, has confused the BSP itself. The iconic image that the BSP supremo has created for herself is the main reason for this. The cadre is nervous that Mayawati will confine herself to one state, and the other three new states would end up as losers. Sensing this, the BSP decided not to push this issue at all.

The BSP is crumbling as a Dalit party because it tried to bridge the vote deficit by wooing other castes whose members, seizing the opportunity, indulged in all kinds of corrupt practices, bringing down the image of the government. Moreover, Mayawati's "I can do no wrong" and "blame it on others" approach further alienated the government from the people.

The Brahmins are not going to vote for the BSP because the Brahmin face of the party has come to be associated with one individual and the expected benefits for Brahmins were taken away by his family and friends. This kind of approach is successful with only those castes and communities where there is an acute shortage of leaders. It becomes counterproductive otherwise - in case of Brahmins this has been proven several times before.

Neither corruption nor development is becoming an issue because of the disillusionment of common voters on these two issues.

Kalyan Singh will be a nonentity this time - he will not be a spoiler either.

The RLD and SP are going to dominate western UP, whereas the SP and Congress are likely to dominate the east.

The BSP is going to be third or fourth in the number of seats won, the first two being the SP and Congress. The idea might sound preposterous at this stage, but in the coming days this is the way things will unfold.

The BSP model of governance has disillusioned the people who have felt absolutely marginalised from governance. The iron-fist grip of the BSP led group of bureaucrats-cum-politicians succeeded in achieving only one objective - make enormous amounts of money. That money came in through different routes - parks, memorials, the liquor trade, new expressways.

Young voters are likely to decide the fate of the state as well as the government this time - courtesy the election commission. This is causing both nervousness as well as some cautious enthusiasm. The SP is cautious about not coming up with promises relating to student politics, as this might remind voters of its earlier record of promoting hooliganism. The Congress, too, is being cautious in this respect. However, both the parties are hoping that their youth leaders will help them attract first time voters.

Contenders

The RLD is also looking up to its new generation leader and despite all its limitations, its pact with Congress is likely to yield it rich dividends, especially given the other factors mentioned earlier.

Also to watch for is the so- called Anna factor. Three or four months back everyone thought that Anna's agitation will make all the difference in this election; today, no one is even talking about it.

There is another factor that intrigues me: the role of the castes.

The BSP is doing badly primarily not because of any significant shift against the party, but because of the perception that little changed in the state despite its ruling the state for five years with an absolute majority. A ruling party needs to contest elections on the basis of its performance.

The BSP, though it looked to do that initially, changed its stance once major scams broke out and ministers had to resign one after the other on corruption charges. Suddenly, the party which was boasting of its performance began talking about its social engineering agenda, and ultimately it was reduced to giving tickets on the basis of caste.

The Congress, despite having had an advantage over the others after performing so well in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, remains yet another party in the fray. There are two main reasons for this: one, they still have a very weak cadre base in the state and two, their top leaders have a poor connect with the masses. Everyone knows what happened when Rahul Gandhi asked Congressmen to spend nights in villages!

There is no denying the fact that the Congress, despite having to face the Anna storm, is the party which has done the maximum preparations for these elections. However, due to lack of adequate connect with the masses; it has left a lot of space for the SP to forge ahead.

No industry, poor health facilities, poor quality of education - particularly higher education- complete tolerance for all kinds of corruption, and lack of tolerance for dissent are the issues which affect the thinking class, which, it must be said, hardly matters in election time.

Manoj Dixit, is a Professor and Head, Department of Public Administration, Lucknow University

Congress eyes gains as 70% vote in Uttarakhand

Courtesy: Indian Express

Defying cold, some 70 per cent people cast their votes in Uttarakhand on Monday. The high rate of polling indicated that people may have given a clear mandate.

In case it is in favour of a change of guard, the BJP could be headed for a rout, capped by a personal defeat of its poll-mascot, Chief Minister B C Khanduri in his Kotdwar seat. Reports from Kotdwar said the electorate was polarised between Khanduri and his Congress rival Surendra Singh Negi along caste-lines with arithmetic favouring the latter.

There were also reports of Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank and his confidante, BJP MLA Shailendra Singh Rawat, working for his defeat. Khanduri had shifted to Kotdwar after his own Dhumakot constituency was merged with Lansdowne seat following delimitation.

The consolidation of a pro-Congress trend implied that even marginal seats were going its way. BJP poll-managers were a worried lot on Monday evening, trying to figure out what the high poll percentage meant for the party’s candidates.

The alternative scenario, though less probable, could be that people had turned out in large numbers to give Khanduri, who has a clean image and high personal credibility, a fresh five-year shot at power.

A total of 788 candidates are in the fray for 70 constituencies. They include Nishank, Leader of Opposition Harak Singh Rawat, PCC chief Yashpal Arya, and Congress MP Satpal Maharaj’s wife Amrita Rawat.

Polling was about 10 per cent in the first two hours but as the day progressed, people turned out in large numbers.

Khanduri had pleaded with the Election Commission to defer polling in snow-clad areas till mid-February. Chief Election Commissioner S Y Qureshi had rejected the request saying everything had been taken into consideration before working out the schedule.

The weather during the beginning of the election process was so hostile that even the CM had to abandon his vehicle and walk for about 10 km in snow to file his nomination papers.

The BJP has 36 MLAs in the outgoing Assembly, the Congress has 20, BSP eight, and Uttarakhand Kranti Dal three. Three are Independents. While the BJP had mounted an effective campaign focussing on Khanduri’s image, the Congress counted on anti-incumbency. The BJP tried to beat incumbency by denying tickets to one-third of its MLAs but not without a cost, as atleast three of them jumped into the fray — in Badrinath, Karnprayag and Tharali.

Nishank was suspected of trying to sabotage party prospects in a dozen constituencies to block Khanduri’s return. The Congress had put up Hira Singh Bisht against Nishank in Doiwala amid reports that the former was disinclined to contest from there. Bisht had nursed another Dehradun constituency, Rajpur. Rawat, who could have made the fight tougher for Nishank, had been moved by the Congress to Rudraprayag.

Meanwhile, BJP leaders Nirmala Sitharaman and R Ramakrishna submitted a memorandum to the EC on Monday, demanding an inquiry against Congress candidate Negi in Kotdwar. Sitharaman alleged violations of The Representation of the People Act by Negi during the last 48 hours. She said, “Negi had held processions, gheraoed Kotdwar police station and gone into the police station by force, broken furniture, and along with drunken followers abused the Chief Minister.”

High poll percentage indicate for a major change in Punjab politics

Courtesy: Punjabonline

CHANDIGARH: An unexpectedly high poll percentage in Punjab assembly elections has upset the calculations of political analysts.  Approximately 77 percent polling in 2012 election is the highest of all times in the history of Punjab. The voters have probably came out in large number for a change, if the past experience is any indication.

The focus of Punjab elections was mainly on two issues, the development by SAD-BJP government or non-performance of this government. The local issues might have dominated at some places where people were not happy with certain candidates or parties.

In the last assembly elections approximately 75 percent votes were cast and this vote was for a change. The SAD had got about 36.5 percent votes and 8 percent votes were received by BJP. Together they had formed the government. This time beside two traditional players SAD-BJP and Congress, the third front led by Peoples Party of Punjab was also in race. It is expected that Peoples Party of Punjab might upset the set pattern of voting in the previous elections. It is assumed that large number of young voters has came out to cast their votes and major chunk of it might have gone with PPP. 

K.S.Kang a retired IAS and keen political observer said that it was beginning of an evolution. He opined that Manpreet Badal President of PPP has given an opportunity to the people who disliked the politics of Akalis and Congress. He has given new dimension to the thinking of people. He feels the high turnout was due to different programme given by PPP. His party may win or not win but it is beginning of a new hope for Punjab, he added.

Prof. Manjit Singh head of sociology department of Punjab University also felt that voters were mobilised to bring a change and came out ion large number to endorse the ideas of Peoples Party of Punjab. He said that one couldn’t be sure who will win the elections. He is expecting many surprises when results will come out on March 6.

It seems that people of Punjab were fed up with the governance so far offered by SAD and Congress and they wanted a change. The tickets given to relatives of senior leaders of all parties were not taken well by the people. The third point which seemed to have impressed people was promise by Manpreet Badal to end the VIP culture in the state.

Another factor for high polling seems the announcement of name of Capt Amarinder Singh as Congress candidate for the post of Chief Minister. This was first time in the history of India that Congress has announced the name of its CM before the elections. It appeared to be a well calculated move of Congress as it mobilised the party cadre to vote for a personality instead of party. The result of this election will also prove the popularity of Capt Amarinder Singh for all times to come.

Akalis betray their nervousness of facing a rout?

Election Commission issues notice to five TV channels

Courtesy:  Punjab Newsline Network

CHANDIGARH: Aaj Tak, Star News & Z News has been telecasting today frivolous opinion poll indicating victory of Congress, penal discussions were also being held and conclusion were benign drawn, opinion formed and extra-ordinary edge of Congress over SAD-BJP was being shown in these opinion polls on the voting day of elections in Punjab. 

Similarly, TIMES NOW TV Channel was showing that DERA SACHA SAUDA has announced support to Congress on the polling day. Similarly Times Now TV Channel has been showing that DERA SACHA SAUDA has announced support to Congress on the polling day. Likewise NDTV India was continuously showing the bytes of President of PPCC showing DERA SACHA SAUDA’s support to Congress on the polling day. There seems to be tacit nexus between these channels & Congress for the reasons best known to them which is not only brought a blot on the Fourth Estate but has also caused a great resentment in Punjab. It is a well known fact no officials declaration by the DERA in support of any party has been issued, yet TIMES TODAY & NDTV India was showing its support to Congress on the polling day with the object to misguide the voters and unduly influence in favour of Congress.

 Taking cognizance of TV telecast by these channel in utter violation of the ECI instructions, Shiromani Akali Dal had approached the Chief Election Commission of India and the Chief Electoral Officer, Punjab for issuance of direction to the Aaj Tak, Star News, Z News, NDTV India & Times Now TV channels to immediately  stop telecasting opinion poll on the day of polling, as at the time of filing the complaint only 10% voting had taken place, and requested the ECI/CEO, Punjab for registration of FIRS against all these channels in all 117 constituencies in Punjab as was done in the case of NDTV during last Assembly Elections.

In pursuance of these complaints lodged by Shiromani Akali Dal Chief Electoral of Punjab has issued notices to the Aaj Tak, Star News, Z News, NDTV India & Times Now TV channels and has directed them to clarify their position within 24 hours, so that Commission could take final decision in this regards. This was disclosed by the President of the Legal Wing of the Shiromani Akali Dal in a statement issued from the Head Office of the Shiromani Akai Dal.

High Voter Turnover in Punjab & U’khand indicate a Congress sweep?

Past voter turnout data suggests that lower turnout benefit the Congress in both states. As seen in the tables, the Akali-BJP combine in Punjab and the BJP in Uttarakhand came to power in 2007 on a much higher turnout than during the Lok Sabha elections of 2009 where the Congress swept both these states.

The provisional voter turnout as given by NDTV is 77% for Punjab and 70% for Uttarakhand respectively. The final figures could be 3-5% higher. So does it mean that turnout favoured the Akali-BJP in Punjab and the BJP in Uttarakhand?

It is very difficult to tell. However, past global data on voter turnout suggests that a spike in turnout is likely to suggest a strong churning for change. If this be the case, the Congress should sweep both states. On the other hand if the BJP managed to bring out their supporters to the polling booth in large numbers, the Congress can still be worsted in both these states.

Found below are extracts from our archive regarding the record voter turnout during the Tamilnadu assembly polls last year. AIAIDMK went on to win by a landslide in a state. Tamilnadu is very similar to Punjab as it demonstrate a trend of voting out the incumbent government.

Conventional wisdom suggests that voters in the state triggered a tidal wave that practically could completely decimate the DMK alliance and catapult the AIAIDMK to power in the state .This will be with a brute majority wherein AIAIDMK's allies will play the main opposition.  Usually record turnout indicates of an anti-incumbency wave against the party in power. 

 

While this is most likely the case, historically there is weak correlation between turnout and electoral outcome. As seen in the table, AIADMK ousted the then ruling DMK government in 2001 with a margin of 0.5% and a voter turnout of less than 60%! Four years later, the DMK clean swept Tamil Nadu and Pudicherry 40-0 in the Lok Sabha elections though voter turnout increased less than a percent.

Two years (2006) later, voter turnout spiked 10% i.e. to 70.7%. Though the DMK ousted the AIADMK in the assembly elections, they led in considerably less number of assembly segments than they did in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2009, voter turnout increased marginally by 2% to 73%; though the DMK emerged winner, they led in almost the same number of assembly segments as they did in the 2006 Assembly elections.

The pattern suggests that DMK does better as voter turnout increases but after voter turnout crosses 70%, the law of diminishing return starts kicking in.