India-Today-ORG’s Opinion Polls on Assam maybe off-the mark too?

BACKGROUNDER

Assam is one of the four states and one union territory that assembly elections are currently being held. And yet, by their poor focus on Assam, media coverage tends to take away its significance within the country’s electoral landscape. 

Northeast India is composed of the 'seven sisters' - Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura - as well as Sikkim and northern parts of West Bengal. Having the largest number of seats, Assam can condition the voting trends for the entire NE region.

Assam, the land of hills and valleys, the land of the mighty river Brahmaputra, the land of Mother Goddess Kamakhya, lies in the northeastern corner of India. The name "Assam" is derived from the term "Asom" which, in Sanskrit, refers to unequal or unrivalled. 

Assam is very much like Kerala in religious diversity, with Muslims and Christians constituting a significant proportion of the ethnic Assamese people and their representation in the Assembly is almost proportionate to their population strength - 30.70% Muslims and 13.8% Christians. There are much smaller minority groups such as Jains, Sikhs and Buddhists too. The growth in the western and southern districts was of extreme high in nature mostly attributable to rapid influx of population from the then East Pakistan or Bangladesh. There are significant number of Nepali or Gorkha and Bengali population in the state. So diverse is the state that as much 45 languages are spoken in the state.

The Congress had been in power in Assam since Indian independence in 1947 till 1978 when a Janata Party government came to power. This government did not last for 2 years, and Congress came back to power and ruled till 1985 when AGP, the party of activists from the Assam Movement came to power. Since 1985, the Congress and AGP have alternatively been in power. In the April 2006 elections the Congress party retained power, the first time a party did so since 1972. In 1990, Assam was put under direct central government rule.

The 2006 verdict was a fractured mandate, where the Congress fell short of 7 seats for a simple majority. The Congress then formed a government in coalition with the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) with 11 members and smaller parties and independents. The AGP was then in alliance with the Left and also the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), a pro-Muslim party, the latter who ended up the third largest party along with the pro-Hindu party, the BJP in the state in the outgoing assembly. It was the AUDF who snatched 9 seats from the Congress minority bastion, to deprive the party of a full majority. The AUDF has a strong presence in the minority-dominated constituencies in Barak Valley in South Assam and lower Assam areas. though formed just before the 2006 assembly polls. The BPF had a pre-poll alliance with the Congress in the 2006 assembly polls. But this time the Congress has decided do away with the pre-poll ties with the BPF in order to keep the party base intact in Bodo tribe-dominated districts in Assam where BPF rules the roost.

Despite a residual threat of terrorist violence, the two-phase Assembly Elections for 126 seats in Assam were held on April 4 and 11, with little violence. While 62 constituencies went to the polls on April 4, elections for 64 constituencies were held on April 11. From a 14,426,221 electorate eligible to vote elect 126 representatives in the just concluded Assam Assembly polls schedule, voter turnout was overall a record 76.03%. The polling percentage for the first phase voting in 62 constituencies on April 4 stood at 73.11 per cent. For the second phase voting for 64 constituencies, voter turnout was 78.6%. However Assam always votes with great enthusiasm, the average voter turnout around 73%. 

A CRITIQUE OF THE INDIA-TODAY-ORG OPINION POLL

 

A pre-poll survey carried out by India Today, Headline Today, Mail Today ORG Opinion poll has forecasted a hung house as tabulated above.

So according to India-Today-ORG opinion poll, the vote share of all major players - Congress, AGP, and AUDF are up viz-a-viz 2006 with the BJP stagnant. Vote share of "Others Category" that include minor parties and independents will sharply contract to 16%, a whopping 12% swing away from 2006. This if true is very difficult to believe as it includes the Bodo party - the BPF -  clubbed under "Others"  whose vote share in 2006 was around 12% and a seat share of 10 in the 2006 assembly elections. 

CONGRESS

The marginal increase in the Congress vote share can be explained by the ULFA Accord effect and that people are reasonably satisfied with the governance standards they provided. Besides, Congress has announced support for sixth schedule to few tribes in Assam which is seen by the party as master stroke to garner tribal votes. The India-Today-ORG opinion survey suggests the absence of anti-incumbency and in fact indicates instead a very mild pro-incumbency wave blowing in the party’s favour.  This is actually good news for the Congress who in 2006 experienced a massive slide of 7.05% in vote share. 

 

Further, if responses to the key questions asked by the India Today-ORG opinion survey, is examined it suggests that the support to the Congress support seems higher than the India Today-ORG opinion poll projects. Is there a discrepancy viz. has India Today-ORG under-estimated the Congress vote share? Probably not if we factor that the Congress has an informal alliance with the BPF and together they account for 41-43% vote share, which supports a Tarun Gogoi headed, Congress led government.

 

AGP

The the regional party, AGP has decided not to have pre-poll alliance with the BJP fearing that it would drive away minority voters. An alliance between the AGP and BJP would have prevented a split in the anti-Congress votes. The AGP rather than the BJP according to the India Today-ORG opinion survey on the face of it, appear to be primary beneficiary of the anti-incumbency vote. 

This looks logical but is it? Apparently not.

In 2006, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, two time chief minister left AGP to form AGP(P) who got a vote share of 2.51 %. Now the situation has changed, P K Mahanta has not only returned to AGP, but also become leader of opposition now. So, even if AGP remain at the  same vote share of 2006 assembly election, the vote share vote share of a reunified AGP will rise to over 23%. So what India-Today projects again is a very mild swing in favour of the AGP, as in the case of the Congress.

On the flop-side, in 2006, the AGP contested under a broader alliance that included the Left and the AUDF in 2006 and accordingly a significant fraction of AGPs 2006 vote share of 20% can be attributed to contribution by the alliance effect. Now contesting it on its own, it would lose this portion of it, partly offset by its informal alliance with the BJP this time round. Besides, since the Congress is projected to net gain marginally in vote share from 2006, the 5% swing projected towards AGP does not look to be accounted by anti-incumbency votes but coming totally from the Others Category. But if the Bodo party, BPF, is expected to retain or expand on its 2006 showing, then what the India-Today opinion poll is really suggesting is that independents, CPM, CPI, TMC, NCP will end up with practically no vote share to speak off. This is what raises eyebrows about India Today’s opinion poll.

BJP

The BJP’s vote share on the other hand is projected to be around the same level as it was in 2006 viz. 12%.  There are many reasons why BJP is stagnant in Assam. The first is that the issue of illegal immigration on which the party made a presence in the state is now on the wane. The second is that the consolidation of non-Congress votes is taking place around the regional party, AGP rather than a national party like the BJP. The third reason is that AGP and partly the Congress under Tarun Gogoi is taking way the pro-Hindu vote. 

So even if we take the India-Today-ORG opinion survey at face value, the AGP-BJP combine is projected around 37% vote share while those of the Congress-BPF combine is projected at around 40-43%. This looks as an unassailable lead margin for the latter, but it need not be so. 

BPF

The support base of the BPF is not pan-Assam but confined to Bodoland Territorial Areas District. The Bodo people resent the Assamese and Bangladeshi immigrants while the Assamese resent the Bodo and Bangladeshi immigrants. The result was a major Bodo insurgency that was only “settled” in 2004-05 with the creation of an autonomous “Bodoland”, located in the north bank of Brahmaputra river in the state of Assam in north. 

Besides, the Bodo political movement is extremely fractured and the BPF possibly faces anti-incumbency as holding the reigns of the Bodoland Territorial Areas District (BTAD). BPF faces a tough campaign from the Bodoland People's Progressive Front (BPPF), the Asom Gana Parishad, and the BJP — parties that are using the alleged corruption issue in BTC areas during BPF rule as a weapon to woo voters.

The Bodo influence is moreover confined only to Kokrajhar, Baksa, Chirang and Udalguri in the state of Assam with Kokrajhar serving as the capital of Bodoland. Bodo voters are still haunted by memories of the fratricidal clashes in 2008 and 2009 between former militants of the BLT and the insurgent National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB). Mr. Mahilary, head of BPF in a bid to prevent the BPPF from wooing Bodo voters, revived the Statehood demand and took the initiative of bringing all Bodo groups, including the NDFB, on a common platform.

AUDF

The AUDF has a strong presence in the minority-dominated constituencies in Barak Valley in South Assam and lower Assam areas and like the BPF has no pan-Assam presence. The AUDF was formed just before the 2006 assembly polls. Nearly 31 per cent of Assam's population of 26.6 million is Muslim, according to the 2001 census. This is second only to Jammu and Kashmir's and is about the same as the proportion of Muslims in undivided India. The AUDF, however, is not conceived as Muslim party. It has put up many numbers of non-Muslim candidates and contesting in only 87 of the state’s 126 seats.

In 2006, just launched, the AUDF piggy backed on the AGP-Left rainbow alliance and chalked up an impressive 10% vote share. Although the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) — contesting as the Assam United Democratic Front in its debut electoral performance in 2006 — secured 10 seats, only one less than the BPF, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi chose not to depend on the party, which represents the Muslim population, for government formation. He believed that a hard line against the AUDF would help the Congress strengthen its position among indigenous and tribal voters, who perceive the AUDF as a party championing the cause of immigrant settlers.

Gogoi is keen on continuing the alliance with the BPF. He has maintained that although the Congress has put up candidates against the Bodo party, the contest is “friendly” and his party would form the government with the BPF. Mr. Gogoi started cultivating the BPF as a potential ally ever since the signing of the second Bodo Accord in 2003, which paved the way for the creation of the BTC. The accord brought the curtains down on a revived Statehood movement, and turned Hagrama Mahilary, chief of the erstwhile Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), into the head of the BPF and a key man in Assam's power politics.

The new equation between the AGP and the BJP has virtually isolated the AUDF in the poll scene. The AUDF was getting cosy to AGP, but in the aftermath of the AGP reviving its ties with the BJP, the AUDF in principle can't remain close to the AGP anymore in the pre-poll situation. AUDF President Badruddin Ajmal, however, has maintained that his party is open to joining a government of any combination, except with the Bharatiya Janata Party. But the Indian Muslim besides is known to adopt tactical voting against BJP and its allies and this is why the 14% vote share projection to AUDF by the India-Today-ORG poll looks somewhat unrealistic at face value. 

 

BFP & AUDF: THE KINGMAKERS

The analysis so far suggests that the BPF and/or the AUDF hold the key to government formation in the context to a fractured verdict in Assam. Within the context, the very fact the India Today-ORG opinion poll did not put them in the centre of their analysis seems to suggest that they are likely to have botched up the predictions of Assam as in the case of Tamil Nadu. 

The Congress is best placed to form the government even if it falls short of a majority since it can poach on all independents and minor parties, including the BPF and AUDF to form an alliance. The BJP-AGP is unable to do this.

But should the Congress fall short of numbers to the extent it makes them dependent on both the AUDF and BPF, this will create a dilemma for them as both BPF and AUDF are allergic to each other. The Congress state leadership besides is split on what nature the coalition should take shape. The Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi backs the BPF while the state Congress President, Bhubaneswar Kalita, the AUDF. 

If the Congress manages to form a coalition without AUDF, Tarun Gogoi will continue a third term while if the Congress forms a coalition with AUDF, Kalita will be the main contender. In the case of the latter scenario, the BPF will shift allegiance to the AGP-BJP and this possibility could generate a dead heat. On the other hand, the Congress can tie up with BPF and force AUDF to support such a government from the outside, since the AUDF will be vulnerable in being accused of letting a BJP alliance taking away control over the state.

 

THE IMPACT OF RECORD TURNOUT

The prospects of a dead heat have been further fuelled by the record voter turnout. Tarun Gogoi exuded confidence of the Congress forming the government after the first phase of voting that saw turnout around the state’s average. After the second phase of voting where voter turnout touched nearly 80%, his tone radically changed. He now invited similar thinking parties to join a Congress led coalition!

Arun Jaitley, National Opposition leader of the BJP then came on television to claim that the Congress received a severe setback in Assam. Mahesh Rangarajan, a political analyst, was quoted by Indian Express implying a similar conclusion - “High voter turnout was also an indicator of people's larger engagement with politics. Whatever they want to say, the message has come through the ballot." However the local paper Sentinel Assam differs:

“There is no denying that the urge to vote against the ruling Congress that has taken corruption to new depths has been very strong among the electorate. There has indeed been a very strong urge for change. However, the electorate has obviously been bewildered in a situation where the Opposition has not been able to inspire any confidence about its ability to provide better governance than what the Congress has done during the last ten years.

For one thing, there has been far too much of infighting within the AGP during the last ten years for people to have any confidence left in the party’s ability to provide any kind of acceptable governance. In the Assembly elections of 2006, people had good reasons to shy away from the AGP because the party had given clear indications of a willingness to tie up with Badruddin Ajmal’s AUDF at a time when the Congress had made its disinclination to have anything to do with the party very clear with Tarun Gogoi wanting to know who Badruddin Ajmal was.

The situation is very different now. The AGP cannot have any tie-up with the AIUDF even if it is still willing, because now the AIUDF would not want to have anything to do with the AGP. But that apart, it is the Congress that has given clear indications that it would be willing to have Badruddin Ajmal’s support if it becomes necessary. What the AGP should have been able to do was to capitalize on the votes that the Congress had begun to lose to the AUDF. However, we are not aware that there was any planning within the AGP to that end. If anything, the division of votes between the AGP and the BJP would almost certainly let Congress candidates get through.”

The record 76.03 per cent, is only an overall rise of 0.21 per cent over the 2006 turnout (75.72 per cent) and 11.83 per cent over the 2001 polling percentage (65.2 per cent).  The Congress won on both occasions.

The Assam results is as therefore as exciting as the Tamil Nadu one and would be keenly awaited. 

Keep watching this space.